Weekly Crypto Outlook – October 13, 2025

TL;DR

• Macro uncertainty deepens as the U.S. shutdown drags on and trade tensions resurface.

• China’s rare-earth export curbs triggered Trump’s 100% tariff threat and a historic liquidation event.

• Bitcoin holds the high ground after a $19B leverage flush and remains the key market anchor.

• Ethereum mirrors BTC with oversold conditions and asymmetric upside potential once funding normalises.

• Institutional flows remain strong, with $3.3B of ETP inflows and expanding stablecoin supply.

In this week’s note

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week

2. Key Macro Drivers – The Week Ahead

3. Market Outlook – Liquidity, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (Oct 6–12)

Macro fog deepens, Bitcoin holds the high ground

The FOMC minutes showed a divided committee. Most members supported the September rate cut, while some preferred to hold, and others pushed for faster easing. Markets saw no new signal, leaving expectations unchanged and pausing Bitcoin’s rally.

Shutdown prolongs uncertainty

The U.S. government shutdown continues to block key data releases. Polymarket users now assign over a 90% probability that it extends past mid-October, reinforcing cautious sentiment and supporting safe-haven demand for Bitcoin and gold.

China tightens rare-earth export controls and triggers tariff escalation

Beijing announced new export controls on 12 critical rare-earth elements, tightening leverage over the U.S. supply chain. The move, effective December 1, was the spark behind President Trump’s 100% tariff threat on all Chinese imports. The escalation triggered one of crypto’s most violent sell-offs in years.

Trump’s tariff shock and the USDe depeg

Bitcoin plunged from $117K to below $102K, with $19B in forced liquidations wiping out roughly $380B in market value. The drop was amplified by a temporary depeg of Ethena Labs’ $14B synthetic stablecoin USDe, revealing structural fragility in delta-neutral stablecoin models.

Institutional adoption continues amid turmoil

• ICE invested $2B in Polymarket, marking Wall Street’s entry into decentralized prediction markets.

• S&P Global launched the Digital Markets 50 Index, linking major crypto assets and listed equities.

• Luxembourg’s sovereign wealth fund allocated 1% of its portfolio (~€7M) to Bitcoin via ETFs — the first Eurozone state fund to do so.

2. Major Events & Economic Data This Week (Oct 13–19)

Government Shutdown Watch

The U.S. funding impasse remains unresolved. No major economic data will be published this week, leaving markets flying blind. Polymarket data still shows more than 90% odds of resolution only after October 15.

Trump–China Tensions Ahead of APEC

After Beijing’s rare-earth restrictions and Trump’s tariff escalation, markets are watching for signs of diplomacy ahead of the APEC summit (Oct 31–Nov 1). A softer tone could calm risk assets; further escalation would strengthen Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative.

3. Market Outlook – This Week and Near-Term Strategy

Liquidity and Positioning Reset

After nearly $19 billion in liquidations, the crypto market has undergone one of the most significant deleveraging events since 2022. Despite the turmoil, flows into exchange-traded products remained strong. Global crypto ETP and fund inflows totaled approximately US$3.33 billion for the week, led by Bitcoin with US$2.67 billion. Year-to-date inflows have now exceeded US$48.9 billion, underscoring persistent institutional demand even during heightened volatility.

Stablecoin issuance also continued to expand, adding depth to on-chain liquidity. The ongoing growth in aggregate stablecoin capitalization suggests that capital is rotating within the ecosystem rather than exiting it. Combined, these flows indicate that structural liquidity remains supportive even as sentiment resets following last week’s deleveraging.

Open interest has fallen sharply across major assets, and funding rates have collapsed to multi-month lows, leaving the market cleaner and better positioned for base formation, though volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin dropped as much as 15 percent to $102,000 before stabilizing near $112,000. The $110K level remains the key pivot. Holding above this area keeps the broader uptrend intact, while a sustained move below $100,000 would signal a deeper correction.

Key levels: Support $100,000 / Liquidity pool $116,000 then $123,600

Outlook: Maintain a neutral-to-cautious bias. With the market primed for a short squeeze, I expect price action to clear the liquidation pool near $116K before retesting the $108.5K zone.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum fell around 17 percent amid widespread liquidations. Open interest declined by more than 30 percent, and funding rates turned deeply negative, showing aggressive short positioning and heightened risk aversion.

Key levels: Support $4,000 / Resistance $4,450

Outlook: Conditions are oversold, and once funding normalises, asymmetric upside potential could emerge. The expected pattern is similar to Bitcoin, with a move to clear late short positions above $4,350 before retesting lower support around $3,850. A brief dip below $4,000 would likely create an attractive entry area for medium-term positioning.

Solana (SOL)

Solana fell 22 percent for the week as leverage was flushed out. Funding rates touched record lows, signalling capitulation.

Outlook: Stabilisation signs are emerging. Tactical accumulation may make sense, though volatility will remain high.

Altcoins (XRP, BNB and others)

• XRP: Down 19 percent, with funding rising into higher percentiles. Premature dip buying limits short-term upside.

• BNB: Down only 1 percent. Cleaner positioning and low leverage create upside potential if the market steadies.

• Broader market: Still Bitcoin-led. Maintain selective exposure to higher-liquidity and real-world adoption themes.