TL;DR
Bitcoin rose 3.95% Friday to Friday to $84.1K, ran to $87.4K on Monday, gave half of that back by Wednesday and then held a $400 band for four sessions. Underneath, open interest on the largest futures book fell 8.3% and funding reset to zero, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in US $2.4B, their largest week since October. Spot money came in, leveraged money went out, and the price stayed.
My scenario for the week: a sweep of the leveraged longs sitting just beneath the price, from $82.75K down to $82K with the densest band at $81.5K, and then a move back up through the short positions stacked overhead, to $85.5K first, then $88.25K, and $91.8K beyond that. The sweep started this morning, with price at $83.1K after a low of $82.7K.
The trigger is the reclaim: after trading into that pool, one 4 hour candle closing back above $82.75K.
I am wrong if Bitcoin accepts below $81.25K, which is three consecutive 4 hour candles closing beneath it. By then more than half the shelf has been eaten, and that is a break, not a sweep.
Full outlook below.
Disclaimer :
Posted in personal capacity. Views are my own, not those of Rain MENA FZE (VARA-regulated, Dubai), where I am a Director, or Rain Trading Limited (FSRA-regulated, ADGM), where I am Senior Executive Officer and General Manager. This is general market commentary, not investment advice, not a solicitation, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose the full value of your investment. Do your own research. No Rain client, product or service is being offered or promoted in this post.
In This Week's Note
Macro View
Market Movers
Key Headlines
Key Macro Events
Notable Token Unlocks
Market Outlook
What happened last week
Bitcoin made its whole week on Monday. It opened near $81.1K, ran to $87.4K on the heaviest volume of the month and closed at $86.6K. By Wednesday it had given back $3,000 to close at $84.4K, and it then spent four sessions between $84.1K and $84.4K. Friday to Friday that is a gain of 3.95%, to $84.1K.
Last week's call was for a false break at $82.3K and a turn lower, wrong above $83K. Bitcoin went through both levels on Monday and turned only from $87.4K. The turn came, and it came on the signal I was watching for, funding going negative, but the level was wrong: the short positions above $83K were bought through, not trapped.
It did all this against a nineteen-year high in US Treasury yields. The ten-year touched 5.12% on Tuesday, the odds of an October rate rise moved to about 70%, and Bitcoin held. Behind the yields sits oil, and behind oil sits the Strait of Hormuz, closed since late February: Iran put a seven-day plan to reopen it on the table on 25 September, the US rejected it on 26 September, and Brent was back above $106 on Monday morning.
Who bought, and who sold
The spot ETFs, the listed funds that give traditional investors access to crypto, bought every day. Bitcoin funds took in US $2,385.8M Monday to Friday, their largest week since October, with US $999.0M of it on Monday alone; the year-to-date total is back above zero at US $1.021B. Ethereum funds took in US $689.8M, also positive every day, after a week of outflows.
The futures market did the opposite. Open interest, the value of open leveraged bets, fell 8.3% on the largest dollar-margined book Friday to Friday and 9.5% from its Monday peak. Funding, the small recurring fee that traders betting on a rise pay to those betting on a fall, dropped from 0.0089 per interval on 19 September to 0.0015 today, against a normal rate of 0.0100, and spent 16 hours below zero. The crowded long bet from last week has been paid for and closed.
Stablecoins, the digital dollars that fund crypto buying, grew by US $493.0M on the week after two weeks of shrinking, and most of the growth was in USDC, up US $1.059B.
Why that matters
A price that holds while leverage leaves is being held by spot buyers, not by borrowed money. That is the configuration in which a dip into the leveraged positions beneath the price gets bought rather than chased.
Those positions are stacked in a shelf from $79.5K to $82.75K, holding 45.7% of all the standing long liquidation stock on the map. The top of it, from $82K to $82.75K, is the pool: 27.5% of the shelf, sitting directly under the price. The densest single band is $81.5K. Above the price, the short positions sit in one cluster from $83K to $88.25K, and then nothing until $90.5K.
This morning price traded down to $82.7K, so the sweep of that pool is already under way.
My read for the week
Bitcoin sweeps the pool beneath $82.75K, takes out the leveraged longs there, and then turns back up through the short positions overhead. The first stop is $85.5K, the centre of the cluster above; the second is $88.25K, the top of it, above Monday's high; and once through that there is nothing standing in the way until $90.5K, with the next cluster centred at $91.8K.
The signal is the reclaim: after the dip, one 4 hour candle closing back above $82.75K. Until that prints, the sweep is still running.
I am wrong on acceptance below $81.25K: three consecutive 4 hour candles closing beneath it. By then 58.8% of the shelf has been consumed on the way down, which is a break of the shelf rather than a sweep of its top, and the next stock beneath sits from $74.5K to $77.75K.
Ethereum and Solana follow Bitcoin's path rather than set their own. Solana was the strongest of the three again, up 8.31%, and closed the week at its high.
The detail behind the call
The figures, charts and levels behind this read, section by section.
Macro View
The heavy end of the calendar
The week is back-loaded. Consumer confidence and job openings land on Tuesday, then Wednesday brings ADP employment (consensus 70K against 38K), the core PCE price index (0.3% against 0.2%), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and the final second-quarter GDP (1.5%). Friday is payrolls, with consensus at 98K against 162K and unemployment expected to hold at 4.1%.
Last week set the frame for reading those. The ten-year Treasury yield reached 5.12% on 23 September, its highest since 2007, the implied odds of an October hike rose to about 70%, and Bitcoin's reversal from $87.4K landed on the same day. Then it held while yields stayed there. For now this market is being led by flows rather than by rates: the ETF bid absorbed a nineteen-year high in yields.
This week tests that. A core PCE print at or above 0.3% on Wednesday, or payrolls well above 98K on Friday, firms the October hike further. If the flow bid holds through that, the regime is confirmed. If it does not, the sweep extends, and $81.25K is the level that says so.
Iran, and the oil route into inflation
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since late February, when Brent was about $72 a barrel. Oil traded above $100 in the middle of September, then fell for five sessions to below $100 late last week as a diplomatic route opened. On 25 September, during UN General Assembly week, Iran's foreign minister put a seven-day plan to US mediators through Qatar: the Strait reopens within seven days and nuclear talks restart if the US lifts its naval blockade, unfreezes Iranian assets, grants sanctions relief on oil sales and hostilities end on all fronts, including Lebanon. The same day Iran's president said UN nuclear inspectors would be allowed in as part of a long-term ceasefire.
On 26 September the US president rejected the plan. On 27 September he said he expects talks to resume in the coming week, while Iran's foreign minister said Tehran had not been officially notified of the rejection. US warships are escorting merchant vessels and about 122 commercial ships had been redirected as of 26 September. The UAE's diplomatic adviser, Anwar Gargash, said on 27 September: "This is the time for diplomacy". On Monday 28 September Brent rose back above $106, up 2.46% on the day and 18.12% on the month.
The route into crypto runs through oil, then inflation, then the rate path. Energy is what two Fed officials pointed at when they firmed their tone last week, and the 5.12% ten-year yield and the 70% October hike odds are the result. A reopening of the Strait is the one event that lowers oil, headline inflation and rate expectations together. A breakdown in the talks sends oil higher into Wednesday's PCE print and firms the hike further, which is what Monday's oil move priced while Bitcoin was sweeping its pool. This week's talks, if they happen, are as important to the rate path as the data.
Regulators are writing the rules the Senate did not
With the CLARITY Act stalled, the Fed put detail on the stablecoin regime instead, proposing on 24 September the rules that give effect to the GENIUS Act. The rules themselves are in Key Headlines below. The point for the market is that the legislative route has closed for now and the regulatory one is moving, which is the ground the ETF bid has been buying.
Market Movers
Market Performance
Solana led the majors for a second week, up 8.31% to $122.10 and closing at its high. Bitcoin took 3.95% to $84.1K and Ethereum 3.04% to $2,690.56, and Ethereum gave back more of its Monday gain than Bitcoin did. Hyperliquid was about flat on the week and has slipped since. Total market capitalisation rose to US $2.861T. Bitcoin dominance was broadly unchanged at 58.67% and Ethereum's fell to 11.32%.
ETF Flows
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in US $2,385.8M Monday to Friday, positive every day: US $999.0M on 21 September, US $714.7M on 22 September, US $346.9M on 23 September, US $190.7M on 24 September and US $134.5M on 25 September. The largest inflows came on the day of the high and shrank each day after it while price held, which is the pattern of a buyer who did not leave when the high failed. Thirty days: US $2.916B. Year to date: US $1.021B, back above zero.
Ethereum ETFs took in US $689.8M, also positive every day, after US $140.6M of outflows the week before. Thirty days: US $964.2M.
Stablecoins
Total supply rose by US $493.0M from Friday close to Friday close, to US $310.0B, ending two weekly declines. USDT supply is US $183.789B, up US $478M on the week, and USDC is US $75.287B, up US $1.059B. USDT traded US $35.127B over twenty-four hours against USDC's US $8.013B. Net issuance over thirty days is US $2.625B. Money came back into the channel, and it came mostly through USDC.
Positioning
Open interest on the largest dollar-margined book fell from US $8.730B at the prior Friday close to US $8.003B at this one, minus 8.3%, and stands at US $7.956B today, minus 9.5% from Monday's peak, against a price that closed the week 3.95% higher. The rally leverage was shed during Wednesday's reversal and was not rebuilt. Standing long stock beneath spot sits in a shelf from 79,500 to 82,750 holding 45.7% of the total, with the pool from 82,000 to 82,750 making up 27.5% of that shelf and the densest band at 81,500. Standing short stock above sits in one cluster from 83,000 to 88,250 holding 58.5% of the total, centred at 85,462.
Funding
Daily mean funding on the largest dollar-margined book ran 0.0089 per interval on 19 September, 0.0075 on 21 September, 0.0019 on 23 September and 0.0015 today, against a 0.0100 neutral rate, and was negative for 16 of the last 169 hours. Bybit's dollar-margined book settled at 0.00012 today. The long imbalance that never got paid for last week has now been paid for and closed.
Volume
Weekly traded volume was 22.8% above its trailing average on Bitcoin and 10.6% above on Ethereum. Monday alone traded US $24.55B on Bitcoin spot, the heaviest day of the month, and the weekend traded US $3.05B and US $5.63B.
Sentiment
Fear and greed reads 74 on Bitcoin, up 3 on the week, and 52 on Ethereum, down 16.
Key Headlines
The Fed put detail on the US stablecoin rules
On 24 September the Federal Reserve proposed two rules giving effect to the GENIUS Act, the law governing dollar stablecoins. Issuers would have to back their tokens fully with short-term Treasury bills or comparably liquid assets, and certain arrangements involving third parties would be presumed to be prohibited payments of interest or yield. With the CLARITY Act having failed in the Senate, GENIUS is now the operative law on whether stablecoin holders can be paid anything for holding them. The proposals are open for a 60-day comment period; the Act takes effect in January 2027.
Bitget said over US $350M left its hot wallets
Bitget said on 24 September that US $351.6M had been exposed in a breach of its hot wallets, the internet-connected accounts an exchange uses to process transactions. Its chief executive said cold wallets and customer funds were safe and that the exchange's user protection fund, holding more than US $464M, covers the amount. Deposits and trading stayed open; withdrawals were paused pending a security review. It appears to be the largest exchange breach of 2026, after the US $320M Liquid Network exploit earlier in the month, and a reminder that custody, not price, is where most investor losses in this sector come from.
Binance now owns a slice of Circle
Circle placed US $100M of its own stock with Binance on 17 September and, the same day, agreed to pay the exchange a monthly fee calculated on the USDC balances sitting in its wallet infrastructure. The five-year arrangement is the third version of this tie-up in under two years, and Binance cannot sell or hedge the shares for two years. It makes the economics visible: stablecoin issuers buy their distribution, and Coinbase, which co-founded USDC, already takes half the interest earned on its reserves.
BitMEX has shut down
BitMEX stopped all trading, deposits and new positions at 04:00 UTC on 23 September. It was the venue that introduced the perpetual swap, the contract that now carries the bulk of crypto derivatives volume. Withdrawals remain open, but balances left behind attract a monthly charge based on 1.0% a year or a US $50 minimum, whichever is greater. BitMart said it was winding down in the same month.
Key Macro Events
Tue 29 Sep — CB consumer confidence, consensus 90.1 against 89.4 prior, and JOLTS job openings, 7.23M against 7.27M, 14:00 UTC (18:00 Dubai)
Wed 30 Sep — ADP employment, consensus 70K against 38K prior, 12:15 UTC (16:15 Dubai)
Wed 30 Sep — Core PCE price index m/m, consensus 0.3% against 0.2% prior, and final Q2 GDP, 1.5% against 1.5%, 12:30 UTC (16:30 Dubai)
Fri 2 Oct — Non-farm payrolls, consensus 98K against 162K prior, and unemployment rate, 4.1% against 4.1%, 12:30 UTC (16:30 Dubai)
Notable Token Unlocks
29 Sep — FF, US $27M across two tranches, 6.47% of circulating
30 Sep to 1 Oct — SUI, US $24M across three tranches, 0.46% of circulating
1 Oct — EIGEN, US $10M, 3.97% of circulating
2 Oct — 2Z, US $113M, 48.70% of circulating
2 Oct — M, US $66M, 2.46% of circulating
DoubleZero is the one to watch: a release equal to nearly half of circulating supply is a repricing event for the token rather than a supply overhang, and it lands on Friday, the same day as payrolls.
Market Outlook
Bitcoin: sweep the pool, then up through the fuel
The call is that Bitcoin sweeps the long stock sitting directly beneath spot, the pool from 82,000 to 82,750 at the top of the shelf, touches the densest band at 81,500 to 81,750, and turns back up through the short stock stacked overhead. At the time of writing price had traded to 82,705 and sat at 83,082, so the sweep is in progress.
The reclaim is the trigger: after trading into the pool, one 4 hour candle closing back above 82,750. The objectives above are the centre of the overhead cluster at 85,462, then its top at 88,250, which sits above Monday's high of 87,385, then the centre of the next cluster at 91,827. The stretch from 88,250 to 90,500 is empty, so a break of 88,250 travels rather than drifts.
Trigger — one 4 hour candle closing back above 82,750 after the sweep
Objectives — 85,462 first, then 88,250, then 91,827
Invalidation: acceptance below 81,250, three consecutive 4 hour candles closing beneath it. By 81,250, 58.8% of the shelf has been consumed on the way down. A dip that eats more than half the shelf without turning is a break of the shelf, not a sweep of its top, and the next stock beneath sits from 74,500 to 77,750, centred at 75,787, with the stretch from 77,750 to 79,500 empty.
The overhead cluster runs 83,000 to 88,250 and holds 58.5% of all standing short stock, with its densest band at 84,500, directly above spot. Half of it has been consumed by 85,500. A move that clears the Monday high and then 88,250 has taken the whole cluster, and the nearest stock after that is centred at 91,827.
Ethereum: follows, through the sweep and back
Ethereum gave back more of its Monday gain than Bitcoin, from a high of 2,806.76 to a Friday close of 2,690.56, and its sentiment fell 16 points on the week while Bitcoin's rose. Its short stock overhead runs 2,640 to 2,800, centred at 2,719, and its densest long stock sits just beneath spot at 2,600 in a shelf that runs down to 2,540. It follows Bitcoin through the sweep and back up, with 2,719 then 2,800 as the objectives.
Trigger — Bitcoin's reclaim of 82,750, with Ethereum following rather than leading
Objectives — 2,719, then 2,800
Invalidation: loss of 2,540, the floor of its shelf. That would put Ethereum beneath its own stock while Bitcoin is still holding its shelf, which would mean the two have decoupled.
Solana: led the majors again, and follows from here
Solana took 8.31% on the week, the strongest of the three majors, and closed at its high of 122.10. Its short stock overhead runs 119 to 128, centred at 123, and its densest long stock sits just beneath spot at 117, in a shelf that runs down to 113. It follows Bitcoin through the sweep, with 123 then 128 as the objectives.
Trigger — Bitcoin's reclaim of 82,750, with Solana following rather than leading
Objectives — 123, then 128
Invalidation: loss of 113, the floor of its shelf.
Hyperliquid and the broad alts
HYPE was about flat on the week and has slipped to about 89 since. Its book sits with short stock from 89 to 98 above spot, centred at 93, and long stock from 83 to 89 beneath it, densest at 87. It had a catalyst of its own last week and has none this week, so it trades with the market.
What decides the week
Whether the spot bid that carried last week holds through Wednesday's PCE and Friday's payrolls. Leverage has already been flushed, funding is at zero and the pool beneath spot is being swept as this is written, so the setup for a turn is in place. The reclaim of 82,750 is the confirmation to wait for, and 81,250 is where the sweep stops being one.
Disclaimer: This content presents objective market data and does not constitute investment advice.
Copyright © 2026 Rain Trading Limited