Weekly Crypto Outlook - September 1, 2025

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (Aug 25–31)

• Core PCE (Aug 29): In-line at 0.3% m/m, keeping “inflation not re-accelerating” intact and nudging odds toward easing into September.

• NVIDIA earnings (Aug 27): Q2 results beat expectations with EPS $1.08 vs $1.01 est. and revenue $46.74B vs $46.06B est. Guidance for Q3 revenue was $54B ±2% (above Street), implying >50% growth again. Net income surged +59% y/y to $26.4B.

• Stock reaction: Shares slipped after-hours as Data Center $41.1B came in slightly light vs est. for the 2nd straight quarter, though losses were pared Thursday.

  • AI buildout theme: CFO Colette Kress projected $3–4T in AI infra spend by decade’s end. Blackwell sales rose 17% q/q; H20 chips (still blocked in China) cost ~$4.5B in write-downs but could add $2–5B if approvals come.

  • Other notes: Gaming division $4.3B (+49% y/y); Robotics $586M (+69% y/y). Nvidia also authorized $60B in new buybacks (repurchased $9.7B this quarter).

  • Flows split: BTC ETFs booked another soft stretch (monthly net outflows), while ETH ETFs remained solid on a 7-day basis—even if inflows slowed late-week.

  • Stablecoin pulse: Net +$4.95B w/w; USDC mcap +6.1% w/w outpaced USDT +0.51%—constructive for near-term risk.

2. Major Events & Economic Data This Week (Sep 1–7)

• Tue, Sep 3: US ISM Manufacturing PMI — key read on industrial activity and employment components; weakness here would reinforce labor-market deterioration ahead of NFP.

• Wed, Sep 4: ADP Employment Report — private payrolls proxy, often diverges from NFP but sets the tone for labor-market expectations.

• Thu, Sep 5: US Nonfarm Payrolls — For August, predictions suggest the US economy will add 78,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% from 4.2%. If numbers align with expectations, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 bps in September — a move to which the US interest rate market currently assigns an 88% probability.

3. Market Outlook – This Week and Near-Term Strategy

Bitcoin

• The line that matters: $107.2k–$107.5k (our short-term Bull/Bear pivot zone based on liquidation levels). Lose it on a weekly close and the bull-market risk rises materially; hold it and we preserve the structure into the Fed meeting on Sep 17.

• Market action: Current price behavior still favors the deviation narrative. A recovery back above 110k would reinforce the idea of a bear-trap setup, with a large liquidation pool at 113.7k–114k as the first target, on the way toward the CME gap at 117k.

Ethereum

• Ethereum: Trend still bullish on the higher-timeframe.

• Rotation: ETH & selected alts (SOL, SUI) remain poised to outperform BTC on any benign macro path. Would consider lowering exposure to alts on a clear break below 107.2k (BTC), with the intent to re-enter later once conditions stabilize.

Flows & Microstructure

• ETFs: BTC shows fifth monthly outflow (second-largest), ETH shows strong 7d inflows but a slower end-week cadence.

• Stablecoins: The minting impulse supports risk — a key difference vs prior downtrend.

Strategy Note (TLDR)

Top line: This week is all about defending $107.2k–$107.5k into Sep 5 and pre-positioning for the Fed’s decision on Sep 17. If the level holds, the bull market stays intact.

Macro Driver: August NFP consensus sees +78k jobs and unemployment at 4.3%. If confirmed, markets expect the Fed to cut by 25 bps, with 88% probability already priced. Initial reaction could still be volatile, but the broader signal is supportive for risk assets.

Positioning:

• BTC: Stay tactically patient, Hold $107.2k–$107.5k and the path of least resistance is a squeeze toward 113.7k–114k, then the CME gap at 117k.

• ETH / SOL / SUI: Maintain measured overweight vs BTC while ETH trend is higher-timeframe bullish and rotation flows persist. Lower exposure to alts if BTC breaks below 107.2k, with intent to re-enter later once conditions stabilize.

Flows to watch: Stablecoin nets, ETF daily prints (BTC vs ETH divergence), and front-end skew for the hedge-unwind tell.

With stablecoin inflows, alt leadership, and macro AI demand (Nvidia) still constructive, we stay selectively risk-on, but insist on disciplined downside management until BTC decisively reclaims 113k.