Weekly Crypto Outlook – November 17, 2025

TL;DR

• Crypto markets enter the week under heavy pressure as Bitcoin trades below 100,000 USD and struggles to regain key levels. ETF outflows remain significant, stablecoin flows are mildly negative, and broader risk appetite is weak.

• Large holders have sold more than 20 billion USD in BTC over the past month, and all short term holders are underwater at current levels, reinforcing fragile sentiment. Recovery attempts now depend on clearing nearby liquidation clusters early in the week. Failure to do so would indicate a deeper market shift and increase the risk of further downside.

• Ethereum continues to lag due to sharper liquidations, although momentum indicators show early signs of stabilisation.

• Regulatory signals from the United States improved materially with the SEC’s new token-classification approach. However, near term price action remains dominated by flows, positioning, and macro uncertainty.

• NVIDIA earnings and the FOMC Minutes are the main catalysts for sentiment and liquidity this week. Bias remains cautious until inflows return and key resistance levels are reclaimed.

In this week’s note

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week

2. Key Macro Drivers – The Week Ahead

3. Market Outlook – Liquidity, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (Nov 10 – 16)

Markets sold off despite minimal macro data. The Nasdaq declined more than 2 percent, Bitcoin broke below 100,000 USD, and gold also saw selling, reflecting broad liquidity pressure.

Rate-cut expectations deteriorated sharply, with December cut odds falling from roughly 70 percent to about 50 percent, even without new economic data. Federal Reserve commentary reinforced uncertainty.

Alternative labour indicators, including Challenger layoffs and ADP data, continue to show softening employment trends.

Large Bitcoin holders sold more than 20 billion USD in BTC over the past month. ETF flows confirmed this derisking:

- Bitcoin ETFs saw about 1.1 billion USD in outflows last week and more than 3.5 billion USD over the month. November is now the second-worst month ever for BTC ETF flows.

- Ethereum ETFs recorded about 930 million USD in outflows last week and around 2 billion USD over the month.

Key Headlines

• Czech National Bank Digital Asset Pilot: The central bank purchased around 1 million USD worth of Bitcoin and other digital assets to test custody, AML controls, and operational workflows.

• Uniswap Fee Switch Activation: Uniswap activated its fee switch, redirecting part of LP fees to the DAO treasury and signalling a shift toward a more self-funded model.

• SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ Token Framework: The SEC introduced a new token-classification approach, establishing that tokens do not remain securities indefinitely and may trade on non-SEC venues once investment-contract obligations end. This is the most constructive regulatory stance in more than a decade.

2. Key Macro Drivers – The Week Ahead (Nov 17 – 21)

Macro Calendar

• Nov 19: FOMC Minutes

• Nov 21: United States PMI

• Nov 21: University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings

Nov 19: NVIDIA

View: United States data releases are normalising after the shutdown. This week will provide the first meaningful signals on inflation, demand, and labour conditions.

Key questions for markets: - Whether the FOMC Minutes reflect a more cautious or restrictive tone - Whether PMI confirms the slowing demand - Whether sentiment weakens further as financial conditions tighten

NVIDIA earnings will influence broader risk appetite and may spill over into crypto if AI-related spending shows signs of slowing.

3. Market Outlook – Liquidity, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins

Liquidity and Positioning

• Crypto market capitalisation is 3.17 trillion USD, around 10 percent lower than last week.

• Total weekly trading volume was 176 billion USD.

• Bitcoin volume rose to 76.5 billion USD.

• Ethereum volume declined to 36.4 billion USD.

Stablecoins

• USDT market cap increased slightly to 184 billion USD.

• USDC market cap declined to 74.8 billion USD.

• Net stablecoin flows were mildly negative at about 200 million USD.

Dominance

• Bitcoin dominance is 58.9 percent.

• Ethereum dominance is 11.7 percent.

ETF flows

• Bitcoin ETFs: 1.1 billion USD outflows over the week, more than 3.5 billion USD over the month

• Ethereum ETFs: 930 million USD outflows over the week, around 2 billion USD over the month

• Flows confirm persistent derisking.

Sentiment

• Bitcoin sentiment: 15 percent (from 8 percent)

• Ethereum sentiment: 30 percent (from 6 percent)

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin broke below 100,000 USD and has tested the 93,000 USD support area. At these levels, all short-term holders remain underwater. A constructive reversal requires: - A move back above 98,000 USD - A reclaim of the weekly 50 EMA at 100,550 USD - A sustained recovery into the 105,000 to 106,000 USD range

Until these levels are recovered, downside pressure remains dominant. The 92,500 USD area is the main risk zone where liquidity becomes thin and selling can accelerate. There are two major liquidation clusters above spot: - 97,600 to 98,200 USD - 105,000 to 106,000 USD A recovery into either cluster could trigger a short squeeze. Technical indicators show early signs of improvement, but confirmation depends on flows and reclaiming the levels listed above.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum experienced heavier liquidations and a sharper leverage unwind than Bitcoin, falling more than 14 percent last week. Key levels: - 3,275 USD as the first short-term pivot - 3,500 USD to confirm a trend shift - 2,850 USD as strong support if weakness extends Momentum indicators show early constructive signs, but they require improved flows and participation to confirm.

Altcoins

Altcoins remain under pressure due to weak liquidity, negative ETF flows, and broad derisking. Bitcoin is not absorbing selling pressure, which limits altcoin performance. Event-driven names continue to show isolated strength only. BTC is expected to outperform altcoins this week.