Weekly Crypto Outlook – January 26, 2026

TL;DR

Crypto markets enter the final week of January with downside price action continuing to unfold broadly in line with the roadmap outlined over recent weeks. Bitcoin cleared the USD 86,300 liquidation pool highlighted last week and is now in a relief rally, but the broader structure remains bearish after losing the mid-range, with liquidity conditions still fragile. Rising geopolitical uncertainty and renewed tariff headline risk continue to raise the probability of sharp volatility, and market chatter around a potential US government shutdown next week adds an additional liquidity constraint. The base case remains a continuation toward the low USD 80,000s over the coming weeks, with any short-lived pump this week viewed as corrective and potentially an opportunity to reduce risk or position tactically.

In This Week’s Note

• Macro View

• Market Movers and Events, Last Week

• Key Macro Drivers, The Week Ahead

• Market Outlook

• Strategy Note

Macro View

From positioning dominance to to liquidity stress

Macro drivers remain secondary to flows and positioning, but headline risk continues to intensify. Bitcoin’s price action remains consistent with the broader corrective regime identified in recent outlooks, with relief rallies failing to restore structure.

Geopolitical uncertainty continues to be an important volatility catalyst. Renewed US tariff threats toward European allies have increased cross-asset fragility, and markets remain sensitive to escalation risk. In parallel, growing chatter around a potential US government shutdown next week raises the likelihood of additional liquidity tightening and reduced risk appetite.

This remains a market where short-term price stabilization can mask deeper fragility: liquidity remains constrained, flows remain inconsistent, and positioning continues to unwind unevenly.

Market Movers and Events, Last Week

Market data and flows

• Crypto market capitalization: USD 2.939T

• USDT market cap: USD 186.67B

• USDC market cap: USD 72.38B

Futures and positioning

Leverage remains elevated relative to liquidity creation, leaving the market vulnerable to sharp moves in thin conditions.

ETFs

• Bitcoin ETF flows (7d): USD 1.202B outflows

• Ethereum ETF flows (7d): USD 600M outflows

Dominance

• Bitcoin dominance: 59.9%

• Ethereum dominance: 11.9%

Key headlines

• NYSE into tokenisation and 24/7 trading infrastructure: The New York Stock Exchange, through Intercontinental Exchange, is developing a blockchain platform to enable 24/7 trading and on-chain settlement for tokenised securities including stocks and ETFs, signalling deeper institutional movement toward tokenised market infrastructure.

• UBS opens its doors to crypto: UBS plans to offer crypto trading to select private banking clients, initially allowing Bitcoin and Ether trading in Switzerland, reflecting rising demand among wealthy clients and cautious but increasing institutional adoption.

• Capital One to acquire Brex: Capital One agreed to acquire fintech Brex in a USD 5.15B deal, accelerating convergence between traditional banking and fintech. Brex recently announced support for stablecoin payments, starting with USDC.

• Coinbase worries about quantum computing risks: Coinbase has formed a dedicated advisory board and highlighted longer-term quantum risks to Bitcoin cryptography, reflecting increased institutional engagement with post-quantum upgrade considerations.

Key Macro Drivers, The Week Ahead

Thin liquidity conditions mean macro events may amplify moves even if crypto is not the primary driver.

Economic calendar

• Jan 28: FOMC meeting

• Jan 30: US PPI (Dec)

Market Outlook

Sentiment

• Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index: 80%

• Ethereum Greed & Fear Index: 75%

Bitcoin

Bitcoin remains structurally bearish despite the current relief rally. The market has lost the mid-range, which historically increases the probability of continuation toward range lows. The relief rally is occurring after clearing prior downside liquidity, but structure has not meaningfully improved.

The projection mapped out in recent weeks continues to play out with strong accuracy: upside liquidity runs have been completed, and downside continuation remains favored.

• Short-term upside liquidity: USD 91,400 (potential short-lived pump / short liquidations)

• Major liquidation pools below: USD 81,000 and USD 72,000

Base case: continuation toward the low USD 80,000s in the coming weeks. Any pump this week should be treated as corrective and a potential tactical short/reduction opportunity.

Invalidation: acceptance above USD 91,300 would reduce downside probability and force reassessment.

Ethereum

Ethereum continues to lag structurally, with risk remaining skewed to the downside in a broader BTC-led correction. Until ETH reclaims and holds above key resistance, rallies should be treated as fragile and tactical rather than trend-defining.

• Upside liquidity: USD 3,000 and USD 3,200

• Major liquidation pools: USD 2,650 and USD 2,400

Confirmation (invalidates downside fragility): acceptance above USD 3,200

Altcoins

Altcoin conditions remain inconsistent and largely dependent on Bitcoin’s path. In a volatility-driven corrective environment, exposure should remain selective and tactical, with a clear preference for liquidity and relative strength rather than narrative-driven beta.

Disclaimer: This content presents objective market data and does not constitute investment advice.