Weekly Crypto Outlook – August 25, 2025

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (August 11–18)

• FOMC Minutes (Aug 20) – The July minutes revealed divisions at the Fed: most policymakers stressed inflation risks from tariffs, while dissenters Bowman and Waller flagged labor market weakness. The hawkish tone briefly knocked BTC and ETH lower midweek.

• Powell at Jackson Hole (Aug 22) – In his “Labour Markets in Transition” speech, Powell acknowledged labor market risks but avoided committing to a September cut. Markets interpreted this as keeping the door open, with rate-cut odds now near 87%. BTC and equities rebounded late in the week.

• Stripe & Circle – Stripe unveiled Tempo, an ETH-compatible L1 for payments, while Circle announced the Circle Payments Network and Arc, a USDC-native L1. Both highlight the battle to own stablecoin rails.

• Crypto ETF flows – Bitcoin funds saw heavy outflows last week (over $1.1B, the biggest since February), while Ethereum funds attracted strong inflows (around $1.6B). The split highlights investors rotating out of BTC and into ETH despite broader market consolidation.

• Bitcoin – After spending most of the week at the lower end of its consolidation range, BTC rebounded on Friday, breaking back above $117K after Powell’s speech. But on Sunday, a whale sold 24,000 BTC (~$2.7B), triggering a $4,000 drop within minutes and clearing the large liquidation cluster at $110.6K. The whale still holds 152,874 BTC, worth over $17B.

• Ethereum – Rotation signals kept sentiment positive, with ETH reaching a new all-time high over the weekend. The rally was fueled by Powell’s comments and rumors of a potential U.S. government Ethereum “strategic reserve.”

2. Major Events & Economic Data This Week (Aug 25–31)

• Wednesday, Aug 27 – NVIDIA earnings (after market close) — Key read-through on AI demand; guidance will be closely watched for spillover into tech and crypto sentiment.

• Thursday, Aug 28 – U.S. Q2 GDP (second estimate) — BEA’s update on growth momentum. Any downward revision would reinforce the case for a September Fed cut.

• Friday, Aug 29 – U.S. Core PCE (July) — The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A softer print would strengthen expectations for easing, while a hotter one could complicate the September outlook.

3. Market Outlook – This Week and Near-Term Strategy

• Bitcoin – Following Sunday’s 24k-BTC whale sale (~$2.7B) and the clearing of the liquidation cluster around $110.6K, we are now retesting this zone. With most liquidation pressure shifted to the upside, a recovery this week looks likely. First confirmation comes on a move above 113K, targeting the next liquidation levels at 116.5K and 118K.

• Ethereum & Solana – Both ETH and SOL are expected to continue outperforming BTC this week. ETH’s strength is underpinned by rotation flows and renewed demand, while SOL remains well positioned in the broader altcoin bid. 

• Macro & catalysts – Since Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill on July 4, nearly $1T of the $5T ceiling has already been used, fueling a deflationary asset boom. Inflation risks may come later, but for now momentum dominates, and the bias for risk assets — especially Bitcoin — is firmly up.

Strategy Note (TLDR) – Bias stays bullish. Following Sunday’s 24k-BTC whale sale and the clearing of the $110.6K liquidation cluster, BTC is retesting this zone with liquidation pressure now skewed to the upside. First confirmation comes on a move above 113K, opening the path toward 116.5K and 118K. ETH and SOL are expected to keep outperforming BTC this week as rotation into leading alts continues. Maintain a tactical overweight in altcoins overall.With nearly $1T of the $5T ceiling already spent since July 4, fiscal fuel keeps pouring onto risk assets such as Bitcoin.