TL;DR
Bitcoin closed the week 2.25% lower at $82.6K, Friday to Friday. On Monday it ran to $87.0K, short of both prior highs, and was sold for three days: through the May high on Wednesday and beneath the range low on Thursday to $80.3K, a $1,366 wick under the day's body. Saturday's low was $82.5K, the range low to the dollar, and Sunday closed at $83.7K; this morning it trades at $84.0K, at the floor of the short liquidation stock overhead. Leverage was flushed on the way down: open interest on the largest dollar-margined book fell 11.5% from Monday's peak and has rebuilt 2.8%, and funding reset from 0.0059 to 0.0004 against a 0.0100 neutral rate, negative for 80 of the last 169 hours.
The rates picture is pulling two ways. Weak September payrolls cut the implied odds of an October hike to 23% from 71% three weeks earlier, while the ten-year yield moved above 5.3% and the thirty-year to 5.7%, two-decade highs, despite the Treasury's enlarged long-end buybacks. Wednesday's CPI is the print of the week: consensus is 0.6% on the month and 3.6% on the year, with core at 0.2% and 2.5%.
Institutional flows turned out. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took out US $679M Monday to Friday, the largest weekly outflow in more than three months, with US $485M leaving on Wednesday alone; Ethereum ETFs took out US $542M on nine consecutive days of outflows. Stablecoin supply was flat, up US $94.6M, after US $3.0B the week before.
Our preferred Bitcoin scenario is a move up through the pool of short stock from $84.0K to $87.25K, half of it consumed by $85.5K, and a sweep of the local high at $87.4K, above which the map is empty to $91.0K. The trigger is one 4 hour candle closing above $84.2K, Sunday's high. It is invalidated on acceptance below $82.3K, the old range highs, three consecutive 4 hour candles closing beneath it. The second leg is the local high's to decide: a sweep above $87.4K that is sold, with a daily close back below $84.0K, runs to the wick liquidity from $81.0K to $80.3K; acceptance above $87.4K retires that and opens $91.8K.
Full outlook below.
Disclaimer: Posted in personal capacity. Views are my own, not those of Rain MENA FZE (VARA-regulated, Dubai), where I am a Director, or Rain Trading Limited (FSRA-regulated, ADGM), where I am Senior Executive Officer and General Manager. This is general market commentary, not investment advice, not a solicitation, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose the full value of your investment. Do your own research. No Rain client, product or service is being offered or promoted in this post.
In This Week's Note
Macro View
Market Movers
Key Headlines
Key Macro Events
Notable Token Unlocks
Market Outlook
What happened last week
Bitcoin failed at the top of its range and was swept beneath the bottom of it. On Monday 5 October it reached $87.0K, 273 dollars short of the 2 October high and 409 short of the 21 September high, and closed lower. Wednesday lost the May high of $82.8K; Thursday 8 October ran beneath the range low of $82.5K to $80.3K and closed at $81.7K, leaving a $1,366 lower wick. Friday to Friday the week is down 2.25%. Then the range was reclaimed: Saturday's low printed $82.5K, the 28 September range low to the dollar, Sunday closed at $83.7K above the May high, and this morning it trades at $84.0K.
Last week's call was the fill of the 2 October wick to $87.2K and a continuation into the pool above. Price got to $87.0K and was sold; the invalidation at $82.5K was hit on Thursday. Wrong on the call. The alternate, a push that is sold back to the long positions beneath, is what happened, without the third push above the highs. The reason it stayed live was that the move into the pool was leverage with spot absent, and that reading was right.
The macro backdrop pulled in two directions. Weak September payrolls took the implied odds of an October hike down to 23% from 71% three weeks earlier, while long yields kept rising: the ten-year above 5.3% and the thirty-year at 5.7%, their highest in more than two decades, with September the worst month for Treasuries in four years.
Who bought, and who sold
The spot ETFs, the listed funds that give traditional investors access to crypto, sold. Bitcoin funds took out US $679M Monday to Friday, the largest weekly outflow in more than three months, with US $485M on Wednesday, the day price lost the May high, and US $244M on Thursday, the sweep day; Ethereum funds took out US $542M, outflows on every day of the week and nine days in a row. Stablecoins, the digital dollars that fund crypto buying, were flat, up US $94.6M after US $3.0B the week before.
The futures market was flushed. Open interest on the largest dollar-margined book, the value of open leveraged bets, peaked at US $8.5B on Monday, fell to US $7.6B in Thursday's sweep, down 11.5%, and stands at US $7.8B this morning, up 2.8% from that low and still 8.7% beneath where the week opened. Funding, the recurring fee that traders betting on a rise pay to those betting on a fall, went from 0.0059 per interval a week ago to negative on Tuesday and Wednesday and 0.0004 today, against a normal rate of 0.0100. The selling on Wednesday and Thursday was aggressive on the perpetuals, US $1.3B of net aggressive selling on the largest book across the two days, and modest on spot. The rebound since Friday has been bought on the perpetuals too, US $313M on Friday and US $294M on Sunday, with spot following at a third of the size.
Why that matters
A sweep beneath a range low that is reclaimed the same week, with open interest flushed and funding reset, is the configuration that tends to run at the other side next. The long positions that sat beneath the range were liquidated on Thursday; the short positions opened on the rebound now sit directly above price, from $84.0K to $87.25K, 54.4% of all the standing short liquidation stock on the map, size-summed on the dollar-margined book, centred at $85.7K and densest from $85.0K to $85.25K. Each of those forced to close is a buy order.
What is different from a week ago: then, leverage was being added on the way into the pool and spot was absent, and the push failed. Now the leverage has been removed beneath the pool. Flows have not turned, and that is why the invalidation sits close rather than wide.
My read for the week
Bitcoin clears the pool above: $85.5K, where half of its short stock has been consumed, then $87.25K, the top of it, then a sweep of the local high at $87.4K. The map is empty from $87.25K to $91.0K, so a break that holds above the local high travels toward the next stock centred at $91.8K.
The signal is one 4 hour candle closing above $84.2K, Sunday's high. Spot is 165 dollars beneath it this morning.
I am wrong on acceptance below $82.3K: three consecutive 4 hour candles closing beneath the 3 September high, the old range highs. The range low at $82.5K and the May high at $82.8K sit just above it and were both reclaimed over the weekend; Saturday tagged the range low to the dollar, so a wick back through it proves little. Beneath $82.3K there is nothing reclaimed left to hold, and by $82.25K more than half of the long positions opened on the rebound have been liquidated, which means the rebound is being unwound rather than the pool above being filled. The path from there is the wick liquidity at $81.0K to $80.3K.
The second leg is the local high's to decide. A sweep above $87.4K that is sold, confirmed by a daily close back below $84.0K, the floor of the pool, is an upside stop hunt completed and rejected, and runs back to the wick liquidity. Acceptance above $87.4K retires that: a break that holds, with the map empty to $91.0K, is a breakout.
Ethereum and Solana fell harder, 6.78% and 8.00%, both sit at the lower edge of their own short stock, and both follow Bitcoin's trigger.
The detail behind the call
The figures, charts and levels behind this read, section by section.
Macro View
Inflation week, into a flushed book
September CPI lands on Wednesday: consensus 0.6% on the month against 0.4% prior and 3.6% on the year against 3.4%, with core at 0.2% against 0.3% and 2.5% against 2.4%. Thursday brings September producer prices (0.5% against 0.4%, core 0.3% against 0.2%) and retail sales (0.3% against 1.2%, ex-autos 0.5% against 1.4%).
The Fed is being pulled two ways. September payrolls were considerably weaker than expected and the implied odds of an October hike fell to 23% from 71% three weeks earlier; activity has held up, with the PMIs still in expansion and consumer spending firm, and energy prices remain elevated on the Iran conflict. The bond market moved the other way from the front end: the ten-year yield rose above 5.3% and the thirty-year reached 5.7%, their highest in more than two decades, even though the Treasury doubled its long-end buybacks in August to at least US $4B per operation and keeps them running into early November. September was the worst month for Treasuries in four years, with the ten-year up more than 50 basis points. Treasury Secretary Bessent has said the Treasury cannot simply control the bond market and has pointed to oil as a driver.
Digital asset fund flows slowed over the week after US $11.1B of inflows since mid-July. If long yields are rising on fiscal concern rather than growth, Bitcoin trades less like a risk asset and more like an alternative to government money, and the flows that follow that argument are the ones to watch; this week they followed the rate argument and went out.
What it means for the week: a 0.6% headline CPI is the kind of print that firms the October hike back up, and it lands two days after a leverage flush. A hot print into a book with funding at zero and open interest 8.7% lighter is a different event from a hot print into last Monday's crowded book: the positions that would have been squeezed are already gone, and what remains overhead is short stock. A soft core print does the same from the other side with more force.
Market Movers
Market Performance
Every major fell. Bitcoin lost 2.25% to $82.6K Friday to Friday, with a Sunday close of $83.7K on top of it. Ethereum lost 6.78% to $2,486.41, falling through its own range low, and Solana 8.00% to $109.07, the largest loss among the majors. Hyperliquid is 87.78 against about 91.5 a week ago. Total market capitalisation fell to US $2.8T. Bitcoin dominance rose to 59.57% and Ethereum's fell to 11.02%.
ETF Flows
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took out US $679M Monday to Friday: minus US $89.8M on 5 October, US $118.8M in on 6 October, minus US $484.9M on 7 October, minus US $244.1M on 8 October and US $21.1M in on 9 October. It is the largest weekly outflow in more than three months. Wednesday's outflow came on the day price lost the May high, and Thursday's on the sweep. Thirty days: US $2.0B in. Month to date: minus US $386M. Year to date: US $584M in.
Ethereum ETFs took out US $542M, with outflows on all five days: minus US $50.8M, minus US $201.9M, minus US $160.9M, minus US $72.5M and minus US $56.1M, the streak now nine days long. Thirty days: minus US $131M.
Stablecoins
Total supply was flat from Friday close to Friday close, up US $94.6M to US $311.6B, after a US $3.0B rise the week before, and reads US $311.3B this morning. USDT supply is US $184.1B, up US $41M on the week. USDC is US $73.0B, down US $1.1B. USDT traded US $30.2B over twenty-four hours against USDC's US $7.5B. Net issuance over thirty days is US $2.6B. The dollars that came in last week were not followed by more.
Positioning
Open interest on the largest dollar-margined book opened the week at US $8.5B, peaked at US $8.5B on Monday's push, fell to US $7.6B in Thursday's sweep, closed the week at US $7.6B, down 7.9%, and stands at US $7.8B this morning, 2.8% above the low. Standing short stock above spot sits in one pool from 84,000 to 87,250 holding 54.4% of the total, size-summed on the dollar-margined book, centred at 85,673 with its densest band from 85,000 to 85,250; above it the map is empty to 91,000, and the next pool runs 91,000 to 93,000 with 22.8%. Standing long stock beneath sits in a shelf from 80,000 to 83,750 holding 58.6% of the total, size-summed on the same book, centred at 82,097 and densest from 82,250 to 82,500: the positions opened on the rebound, where the stock swept on Thursday used to be. Aggressive flow told the story of the week: on Wednesday and Thursday the perpetuals saw US $1.3B of net aggressive selling on the largest book while spot on the same venue saw minus US $79M, and on Friday and Sunday the perpetuals bought US $313M and US $294M while spot bought US $113M and US $73M.
Funding
Daily mean funding on the largest dollar-margined book ran 0.0059 per interval on 2 October, minus 0.0007 on 6 October, minus 0.0021 on 7 October, 0.0043 on 9 October and 0.0004 today, against a 0.0100 neutral rate, and was negative for 80 of the last 169 hours. The two negative days were shorts paying to press the failure, and the sweep came the day after. Longs are not paying.
Volume
Weekly traded volume was 9.8% below its trailing average on Bitcoin and 16% below on Ethereum.
Sentiment
Fear and greed reads 69 on Bitcoin, down 1 on the week, and 42 on Ethereum, down 24.
Key Headlines
The US Treasury dropped two crypto surveillance proposals
Notices published in the Federal Register on 6 October withdrew two long-pending FinCEN proposals, neither of which had taken effect. The first, from December 2020, would have required banks and money services businesses to report transactions above US $10K involving self-hosted wallets, where the owner holds the keys rather than leaving the assets with an exchange, and to keep records above US $3K. The second, from 2023, would have designated international crypto mixing, the pooling of coins from many users to obscure the trail, a primary money laundering concern under Section 311 of the USA PATRIOT Act; FinCEN said the definition risked chilling legitimate privacy use. Existing obligations are unchanged, and the statutory authority to propose similar rules remains.
Circle, Ripple and Standard Chartered bought into an exchange
OKX closed a strategic investment from Circle, Ripple, Standard Chartered's venture arm and the trading firm Qube Research on 6 October at a US $25B pre-money valuation. The amounts were not disclosed, and the price is flat to the March round led by Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, reported at about US $200M. Each investor already sits in the exchange's plumbing: Circle for USDC, Ripple's stablecoin in the order book, Standard Chartered as custodian. The OKX joint venture with Intercontinental Exchange has filed to offer round-the-clock trading in tokenised shares of 63 US companies, settled in stablecoins.
The largest Ethereum treasury said it will stop buying
BitMine Immersion Technologies will halt its weekly Ethereum purchases once it holds 5% of circulating supply, chairman Tom Lee said at Token2049 in Singapore on 7 October, and he called the limit firm. The company holds 6.0M ETH, roughly 4.9% of supply, about 100,000 ETH short of the cap, six to seven weeks of buying at the recent pace. It has bought every week since June 2025, a standing and largely mechanical source of demand, and a known buyer now has a published end date. The position carries roughly US $4.5B of unrealised losses on tracking data, most of it from purchases at higher prices last year.
Samsung put stablecoins on 82 million phones
Samsung Wallet and Samsung Pay will let US users send USDC across borders from the last week of October, running on Solana, across 82M US Galaxy devices, with conversion to and from local currency built in and bank-transfer delivery in more than 60 countries. The blockchain sits behind the scenes and the user never meets a crypto interface; Bastion provides the stablecoin infrastructure and Coinbase Prime the custody. Samsung flagged stablecoin support in July without naming an issuer, a chain or a date, and this is the first time all three are on the record. Costs and key custody are not yet stated.
Key Macro Events
Wed 14 Oct — CPI — consensus 0.6% m/m against 0.4% prior and 3.6% y/y against 3.4%; core 0.2% m/m against 0.3% and 2.5% y/y against 2.4% — 12:30 UTC (16:30 Dubai)
Thu 15 Oct — PPI — consensus 0.5% m/m against 0.4% prior, core 0.3% against 0.2% — 12:30 UTC (16:30 Dubai)
Thu 15 Oct — Retail sales — consensus 0.3% m/m against 1.2% prior, ex-autos 0.5% against 1.4% — 12:30 UTC (16:30 Dubai)
Notable Token Unlocks
12 Oct — PUMP — US $39M, 1.48% of circulating
12 Oct — CC — about US $19M per period, 0.38% of circulating, a change in the emission rate rather than a lump sum
13 Oct — SEI — US $6.9M, 1.45% of circulating
14 Oct — STRK — US $28M, 3.03% of circulating
15 Oct — ARB — US $18.5M, 1.37% of circulating
17 Oct — DBR — US $12M, 10.43% of circulating
DBR at 10.43% of circulating is the largest proportional release of the week; PUMP is the largest in dollars.
Market Outlook
Bitcoin: clear the pool above, then the local high decides
The call is that Bitcoin moves up through the pool of short stock directly overhead, from 84,000 to 87,250, and sweeps the local high at 87,385, the 21 September high. At the time of writing it trades at 84,015, 15 dollars above the pool's floor. The pool holds 54.4% of all standing short stock, size-summed on the dollar-margined book, is centred at 85,673 and densest from 85,000 to 85,250, and half of it has been consumed by 85,500. Above 87,250 the map is empty to 91,000, where the next cluster runs to 93,000 and is centred at 91,771. The 2 October high of 87,249 and Monday's high of 86,976 are the two failures beneath the local high.
The trigger is one 4 hour candle closing above 84,180, Sunday's high. Acceptance, used below, means three consecutive 4 hour candles closing beyond a level; a wick through it is not acceptance.
Trigger — one 4 hour candle closing above 84,180
Objectives — 85,500 first, then 87,250, then a sweep of 87,385
Invalidation: acceptance below 82,282, three consecutive 4 hour candles closing beneath the 3 September high, the old range highs. The range low at 82,500 and the May high at 82,828 sit above it, both reclaimed over the weekend, and Saturday tagged 82,500 to the dollar, so a wick back through the range low proves little. Beneath 82,282 nothing reclaimed is left to hold, and by 82,250 more than half of the long stock opened on the rebound, 58.8% of the shelf from 80,000 to 83,750, has been consumed: the rebound is being unwound rather than the pool being filled. The path from there is the wick liquidity from 81,027, half the 8 October wick, to 80,344, its low, with the next long stock centred at 75,722.
The two profiles are the week's structure in size. Above, the short stock opened on the rebound sits in one pool with its densest band just above spot. Beneath, the long stock swept on Thursday has been replaced by positions opened above 80,000, centred at 82,097, and those are what the invalidation protects: a push down that consumes half of them is a push down that has stopped being a sweep.
The second leg is the local high's to decide. A sweep above 87,385 that is sold, confirmed by a daily close back below 84,000, the floor of the pool, is an upside stop hunt completed and rejected, and the path from there runs to the wick liquidity from 81,027 to 80,344, with 82,282 the first stop. It is retired by acceptance above 87,385: a break that holds above the local high, with the map empty to 91,000, is a breakout, and the next stock is centred at 91,771.
Why the call is up: the move into the pool a week ago was leverage-led and failed, and the move out of the range this week was leverage-led and was reclaimed. Open interest is 8.7% beneath where the week opened, funding is at 0.0004 with 80 negative hours in the week, the aggressive selling of Wednesday and Thursday was on the perpetuals, and the rebound has been bought on the perpetuals with spot following at a third of the size. A flush that is reclaimed with the fuel overhead is the cleaner reversal configuration. Flows have not turned, and that is what keeps the invalidation close rather than wide.
Ethereum: beneath its range, at the edge of its own stock
Ethereum trades at 2,565, at the lower edge of the short stock that runs 2,560 to 2,660, centred at 2,610 and densest at 2,620. It lost 6.78% on the week to 2,486.41, fell through its 28 September low of 2,634 on 7 October and to 2,405 on 8 October, and closed Sunday at 2,535.66, beneath the range it held a week ago; its spot funds took out US $542M on nine straight days of outflows and its sentiment fell 24 points. The long stock beneath runs 2,420 to 2,560, densest at 2,520. It follows Bitcoin's trigger.
Trigger — Bitcoin's 4 hour close above 84,180, with Ethereum following rather than leading
Objectives — 2,610, then 2,660
Invalidation: loss of 2,405, the 8 October low. Ethereum has no reclaimed level to lose, so the deviation low is the one that must hold.
Solana: fell hardest, follows from here
Solana lost 8.00% on the week to 109.07, the largest loss among the majors, with a low of 105.61 on 8 October and a Sunday close of 111.30, and trades at 112 at the lower edge of the short stock that runs 113 to 118, centred at 115. The long stock beneath runs 106 to 113, densest at 109.
Trigger — Bitcoin's 4 hour close above 84,180, with Solana following rather than leading
Objectives — 115, then 118
Invalidation: loss of 105, the 8 October low.
Hyperliquid and the broad alts
HYPE is 87.78 against about 91.5 a week ago, at the lower edge of short stock that runs 87 to 94 and is centred at 90, with long stock beneath from 80 to 88. It trades with the market this week.
What decides the week
Whether the flushed book gets bought through the pool before Wednesday's CPI, or the print does it. The structure points up: the deviation was reclaimed, the leverage beneath is gone, and the fuel sits directly overhead with the local high 135 dollars above the top of it. A 4 hour close above 84,180 is the confirmation to wait for, 82,282 is where the reclaim has failed, and the local high at 87,385 decides whether the move is a sweep that is sold or a breakout toward 91,771.
Disclaimer: This content presents objective market data and does not constitute investment advice.
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