1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (Sep 29–Oct 5)
U.S. Shutdown → data blackout
The U.S. government shutdown that began October 1st has effectively silenced key economic data releases, including the October 3rd Nonfarm Payrolls report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has halted collection and publication until funding is restored. Markets are flying blind on labor data, heightening uncertainty around the Fed’s next steps.
Bitcoin sets a new all-time high
Bitcoin broke above $125,000 over the weekend, driven by one of the strongest ETF inflow weeks since launch. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $3.2 billion in inflows, as investors rotated into digital assets amid rising fiscal and policy risk. The move underscores Bitcoin’s emerging “safe-haven” role in times of U.S. fiscal dysfunction.
Stablecoin inflows expand liquidity
Stablecoin market capitalization rose by roughly $6.1 billion week-on-week to about $303 billion, marking another strong week for crypto liquidity conditions. Tether’s (USDT) market cap climbed to $177 billion (+1.5% w/w) and Circle’s USDC rose to $75.2 billion (+2.2% w/w). Aggregate trading volumes were slightly higher, indicating sustained demand for on-chain cash equivalents even as macro volatility rose.
Tokenized Treasuries on Solana
Circle expanded its $635 million tokenized U.S. Treasury fund (USYC) to the Solana blockchain, joining Ethereum, Near, Base, and Canton. The tokenized Treasury market has nearly tripled in size over the past year, from about $2.4 billion to nearly $8 billion, reflecting growing institutional appetite for real-world assets on blockchain rails.
ETF approval delays intensify
The SEC, operating with a skeleton staff during the shutdown, delayed decisions on several pending spot crypto ETF applications. The limited operational capacity raises the likelihood of further postponements into late October, slowing the broader institutional adoption narrative.
EU stablecoin scrutiny rises
The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) backed a proposal to prohibit stablecoins issued across multiple jurisdictions. The measure, supported by the ECB and national regulators, aims to prevent cross-border redemption runs that could drain EU reserves. Critics warn it may fragment liquidity and undermine the EU’s competitiveness in digital finance.
A French bank bets on DeFi
Société Générale’s crypto subsidiary, SG Forge, announced the launch of USD CoinVertible (USDCV), a dollar-backed stablecoin to be issued on Ethereum and Solana. The token will be fully reserved with custodians including BNY Mellon, targeting institutional use cases such as settlements, treasury management, and collateralization.
2. Major Events & Economic Data This Week (Sep 29– Oct 5)
Oct 8 – FOMC Minutes (September Meeting): The absence of fresh labor data heightens the importance of this release for gauging policy direction.
Government Shutdown Watch: Prediction markets assign the highest probability to a resolution on or after October 15th. Until then, missing economic data will reinforce uncertainty and potentially support safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and gold.
3. Market Outlook – This Week and Near-Term Strategy
Liquidity conditions
Liquidity remains supportive, with $3.2 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows and over $6 billion in new stablecoin issuance. Combined, these flows offset macro-driven volatility and sustain crypto market depth through early October.
Bitcoin (BTC)
After a decisive breakout above $122,000, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high near $125,000. Technically, BTC remains in a strong uptrend, though short-term indicators show elevated momentum, and we would expect the market to cool off over the next 72 hours and retest the 120.5k zone as support.
Key levels: Support at $120,000; mid-term targets and resistance at $129,000 and $138,000.
Outlook: The $122k–$138k range is now the primary zone. Sustained ETF inflows and low exchange balances argue for further upside. Tactical bias remains long on pullbacks toward support.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH underperformed BTC again last week, with inflows of roughly $1.3 billion and relatively softer trading activity. Short-term momentum is neutral to mildly bullish.
Key levels: $4,450.
Outlook: A sustained break above $4,450 could open the path to $4,900. Until then, maintain a neutral or slightly underweight bias versus BTC.
Altcoins (SOL, XRP, others)
SOL: Strong institutional narrative support from Circle’s USYC integration and rising RWA interest.
XRP: Continued speculative activity ahead of potential U.S. ETF developments, though timelines remain uncertain due to the SEC’s limited operations.
Broad altcoin market: Still narrow and BTC-led. Maintain selective exposure focused on assets tied to real-world adoption themes (RWA, staking, infrastructure).
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