Weekly Crypto Outlook – October 27, 2025

TL;DR

• The crypto market continues to stabilize after the October 10 crash, showing early signs of a constructive recovery phase.

• Liquidity remains strong, supported by steady ETP inflows, expanding stablecoin supply, and positive funding rates — confirming that capital is rotating within the ecosystem rather than exiting it.

• Bitcoin has recovered to around $115K and remains on track to test $117K–$121.5K; minor downside risk persists from a liquidation pool forming near $106K.

• Ethereum mirrors this setup, targeting $4,350–$4,500, with a short-term liquidation pocket around $3,785 that could create temporary volatility before continuation.

• Altcoins (SOL, XRP) are regaining momentum, with selective accumulation opportunities emerging as sentiment improves and volatility moderates.

• Macro backdrop remains supportive: expectations for two Fed cuts (25 bps in Oct, 50 bps in Dec) reinforce a pro-liquidity environment, while the U.S. government shutdown continues to delay data and weigh on the dollar.

• Overall stance: turning constructive — risk/reward favors disciplined accumulation as the market transitions from deleveraging to base formation.

In this week’s note

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week

2. Key Macro Drivers – The Week Ahead

3. Market Outlook – Liquidity, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (Oct 20–26)

Rates and the shutdown

CPI came in softer at 0.3% m/m, reinforcing expectations for two additional rate cuts this year despite limited data availability during the government shutdown. With employment data still missing, investors placed outsized weight on CPI, Beige Book tone, and Chair Powell’s dovish remarks. Senate efforts to advance a short-term funding bill failed again, keeping uncertainty elevated.

Flows and price action

The shutdown is in week three and likely to roll into a fourth. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin ETFs saw +$447 million in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs recorded −$244 million in net outflows. There were also modest inflows into 2×-leveraged BTC and ETH products, suggesting that some investors believe the worst of the post-cascade negativity has passed. Price action strengthened after the CPI release, with BTC grinding higher from the $106K region.

Key Headlines

• Prediction markets boom: Polymarket and Kalshi reportedly targeting multi-billion valuations as weekly volumes exceed $2B, though regulatory clarity remains uncertain.

• Hyperliquid Strategies seeks up to $1B to acquire and hold HYPE tokens as part of a treasury and liquidity initiative, reflecting continued institutional appetite for token-backed strategies.

2. Key Macro Drivers – The Week Ahead (Oct 27–31)

Calendar

• Oct 27: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

• Oct 29: U.S. FOMC Rate Decision; Earnings – Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta

• Oct 30: BoJ Rate Decision, U.S. Advance GDP; Earnings – Coinbase, Apple

• Oct 31: U.S. Core PCE

• Crypto: Jupiter (53.47M) token unlock on Oct 29; IMX (24.52M) unlock on Oct 31

View: Softer CPI and the prolonged shutdown continue to strengthen the case for a more dovish Fed trajectory. We expect 25 bps in October and 50 bps in December, a path likely to remain supportive for digital assets if ETF inflows persist and macro volatility stays contained.

3. Market Outlook – Liquidity, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins

Liquidity and Positioning

The crypto market is entering a more constructive phase, steadily recovering from the October 10 crash. Derivatives indicators suggest the worst of the deleveraging is behind us, and aggregate liquidity remains healthy. Stablecoin supply continues to expand moderately, with Tether’s USDT market cap at $183 billion (+0.66% week-on-week) and Circle’s USDC at $76.2 billion (+0.4% week-on-week). ETP inflows confirm that capital is rotating within the ecosystem rather than exiting it.

Funding rates have turned positive, signaling a gradual rebuild of bullish positioning. Top altcoins are up roughly 20% post-crash and likely to extend gains as sentiment improves. Bitcoin’s dominance continues to rise, highlighting institutional preference for large-cap exposure. Sustained ETF inflows this week will be key to validating and reinforcing this recovery leg.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin has steadily recovered to around $115,000, in line with last week’s outlook. The next upside targets remain at $116.7K and $121.5K, which could be reached in the coming sessions.

Key levels: Support $100K–$106K / Resistance $116.7K–$121.5K

Outlook: The base case remains for Bitcoin to extend the recovery that began last week, pushing higher toward the $117K–$121.5K range. On the downside, a large liquidation pool near $106K could pose short-term risk if momentum stalls.

Ethereum (ETH)

Key levels: Support $3,450–$3,750 / Resistance $4,350–$4,500

Outlook: Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is expected to extend its recovery, with upside targets at $4,350–$4,500. Momentum has improved, though participation remains uneven across spot and derivatives markets. On the downside, a liquidation pool around $3,785 could attract short-term volatility before the broader uptrend resumes.

Altcoins

The post-liquidation environment continues to weigh on smaller assets, though sentiment is clearly improving. SOL and XRP are showing renewed traction and are likely to recover in tandem with Bitcoin this week. Tactical accumulation looks increasingly justified, particularly as funding rates normalize and open interest rebuilds across majors. Volatility remains elevated, but market structure is stabilizing — suggesting that select high-beta names could outperform once Bitcoin consolidates above resistance.