Weekly Crypto Outlook, May 25, 2026

TL;DR

Crypto enters the week in a fragile risk off structure. Bitcoin’s trend model has flipped bearish, ETF outflows have accelerated, stablecoin liquidity remains weak, and sentiment has reset sharply lower.

Bitcoin is trading around the key $76K to $77K zone. This is now the immediate battleground. The market is caught between upside liquidity at $79K to $80K, with a larger cluster near $84K, and downside liquidity at $74K, then $70K.

Macro is again the main driver. The latest FOMC minutes were more hawkish than expected, the Fed has dropped its easing bias, and a rate hike remains possible if inflation does not cool. Core PCE is therefore the key U.S. data release this week.

The U.S. and Iran conflict remains the main geopolitical swing factor. A confirmed peace framework and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a violent relief rally. However, the deal is not complete, the U.S. naval blockade remains in place, and major issues remain unresolved.

Ethereum remains weaker than Bitcoin. ETH dominance has fallen below 10%, ETF flows remain negative, and funding is still elevated relative to price action. The preferred relative value trade remains long Bitcoin versus short Ethereum.

The key takeaway: stay defensive. Bitcoin can bounce sharply on better geopolitical headlines, but the broader structure has weakened. We would only become more constructive if Bitcoin reclaims $78.1K to $78.4K and ETF flows begin to stabilize.

In This Week’s Note

• Macro View

• Market Movers and Events, Last Week

• Key Macro Drivers, The Week Ahead

• Notable Token Unlocks

• Market Outlook

Macro View

Last week brought a major reset in macro expectations.

The FOMC minutes showed a more hawkish Fed than Powell’s press conference had suggested. The committee appears split between doves, pause advocates, and a stronger hawkish bloc willing to consider hikes if core inflation remains sticky.

The key point is that the Fed has dropped its easing bias. With oil prices still sensitive to the U.S. and Iran conflict, policymakers are concerned that energy could keep inflation elevated. The labor market also remains stable enough to reduce pressure for near term cuts.

U.S. data is becoming more mixed. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 55.3, beating expectations, while Services PMI slipped to 50.9. This is an uncomfortable combination for risk assets: growth is not weak enough to force policy easing, but inflation pressure has not clearly disappeared.

Kevin Warsh has now taken over as Fed Chair. Markets will quickly test his independence and reaction function, especially with President Trump continuing to call for lower rates while inflation remains above target.

The U.S. and Iran situation is still the main geopolitical risk. There has been progress toward a possible peace framework and 60 day ceasefire extension, but no final agreement. The U.S. blockade remains in place, and the key disputes around Hormuz, nuclear stockpiles, and regional security remain unresolved.

For crypto, this keeps the setup binary. A credible agreement could reduce oil risk and support a relief rally. No deal, renewed escalation, or continued blockade pressure would reinforce the downside path.

Market Movers and Events, Last Week

Market data and flows

• Crypto market cap: $2.55T, down 2.3% WoW

• Average weekly volume: $77B, 16% below average

• Bitcoin weekly volume: $28.5B, 16% below average

• Ethereum weekly volume: $13.9B, 16% below average

• Ethereum network fees: 0.09 Gwei

Market activity weakened materially. Volumes are lower, ETF demand has turned negative, and stablecoin growth remains disappointing. This is not a strong liquidity environment.

Futures and positioning

• Bitcoin funding rate: 2%

• Bitcoin open interest: $24.6B, down $900M WoW

• Ethereum funding rate: 6.7%

• Ethereum open interest: $11.8B, down $1.4B WoW

Bitcoin open interest is unwinding, which points to risk reduction rather than aggressive new positioning. Ethereum remains weaker, with funding elevated while price trends lower.

ETF flows

• Bitcoin ETF flows, 7 days: minus $1.3B

• Bitcoin ETF flows, 30 days: minus $1.2B

• Bitcoin ETF outflows since May 7: $2.7B

• Ethereum ETF flows, 7 days: minus $216M

• Ethereum ETF flows, 30 days: minus $537M

• Ethereum ETF outflows since May 7: $572M

ETF flows are the clearest negative signal. Bitcoin ETFs have moved from support to pressure, while Ethereum continues to underperform.

Stablecoins and liquidity

• USDT market cap: $189.7B, down 0.05% WoW

• USDT volume: $65.2B, 16% below average

• USDC market cap: $76.4B, down 0.7% WoW

• USDC volume: $10.5B, 6% below average

• Weekly stablecoin net change: minus $0.6B

• 30 day minted: $0.6B

Stablecoin liquidity remains weak. Without stronger net issuance, rallies are likely to remain selective, fragile, and flow dependent.

Dominance and sentiment

• Bitcoin dominance: 60%, down 0.2% WoW

• Ethereum dominance: 9.9%, down 0.2% WoW

• Bitcoin Greed and Fear: 23% vs 45% last week

• Ethereum Greed and Fear: 10% vs 65% last week

Ethereum dominance has fallen below 10% for the first time since July 2025. This confirms that ETH remains structurally weak versus Bitcoin.

Sentiment has reset sharply. This creates room for a relief rally if headlines improve, but the market still needs a catalyst.

Key Headlines

Strategy’s never sell narrative cracks

Strategy remains a major structural holder of Bitcoin, but the market can no longer treat its Bitcoin supply as completely immovable.

Michael Saylor’s indication that the company could eventually sell some Bitcoin, alongside Strategy’s Q1 loss of $12.5B, has weakened one of the strongest narratives behind the company’s premium valuation.

This does not mean forced selling is imminent, but it changes how the market prices Strategy’s balance sheet, dividend obligations, debt management, and Bitcoin treasury strategy.

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill revised

The revised Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill reportedly dropped its original 1M BTC purchase target.

The updated version replaces the purchase target with localized fiscal constraints and introduces a strict 20 year lockup period to prevent future administrations from liquidating the reserve prematurely.

This remains structurally positive for Bitcoin’s long term policy narrative, but the removal of the 1M BTC target reduces the near term demand implication.

SEC delays tokenized asset exemption

The SEC delayed a proposed exemption that would have streamlined tokenized real world asset integration.

The delay appears linked to concerns around third party token custody and systemic platform vulnerabilities. This slows the institutional RWA narrative and reinforces that regulatory progress remains uneven.

Trump orders Fed review on crypto firm master accounts

President Trump instructed the Federal Reserve to review whether crypto native firms should receive direct access to Fed master accounts.

If implemented, this could become a major structural change for digital asset firms, allowing direct settlement access without relying fully on traditional banking intermediaries.

Prediction markets face legal setbacks

Kalshi and Polymarket both lost bids to halt state level gambling cases in Nevada and Washington.

This adds legal pressure to one of the most visible crypto use cases and may slow near term expansion in prediction markets.

MENA Blockchain Week highlights regional momentum

MENA Blockchain Week in Dubai highlighted the continued growth of institutional, regulatory, and infrastructure interest across the region.

The event reinforced Dubai’s position as one of the most active global hubs for digital assets, bringing together policymakers, exchanges, fintech companies, infrastructure providers, and institutional investors.

Key Macro Drivers, The Week Ahead

U.S. and Iran peace framework

This is the most important macro catalyst for crypto this week.

A confirmed agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely reduce oil risk and support a risk asset relief rally. Bitcoin could retest $79K to $80K, with a stronger squeeze toward $84K.

Failure to reach a deal, renewed strikes, or continued blockade pressure would keep oil risk elevated and reinforce the downside path toward $74K and $70K.

Fed communication under Kevin Warsh

Markets will watch whether Warsh reinforces the hawkish tone from the FOMC minutes or creates more flexibility around future policy.

Any signal that the Fed is still open to hikes would weigh on Bitcoin and broader crypto.

Core PCE

Core PCE is the key U.S. economic data release this week because it is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

A softer print would help Bitcoin defend the $76K area and could support a move back toward $79K to $80K. A hotter print would reinforce the higher for longer narrative, pressure ETF flows, and increase the risk of a downside break toward $74K, then $70K.

ETF flows and stablecoin supply

ETF flows are now central to Bitcoin’s short term direction. A slowing of outflows would help stabilize price near $76K to $77K, while continued outflows would increase downside risk.

Stablecoin net issuance also remains weak. A return to positive stablecoin growth is needed to support broader altcoin risk.

Notable Token Unlocks, May 25 to May 31

Monday, May 25

Humanity, H

• Approximate value: $22.2M to $23.8M

• Supply impact: around 5.8% of circulating supply

Plasma, XPL

• Approximate value: $7.24M to $7.4M

• Supply impact: around 3.69% of circulating supply

Tuesday, May 26

Huma Finance, HUMA

• Approximate value: $11.69M

• Supply impact: 20.04% of circulating supply

Sahara AI, SAHARA

• Approximate value: $4.55M

• Supply impact: around 4.06% of circulating supply

Saturday, May 30

Kamino, KMNO

• Approximate value: $4.6M

• Supply impact: around 3.16% of circulating supply

Sunday, May 31

Sui, SUI

• Approximate value: $15.0M

• Supply impact: around 0.36% of circulating supply

Gunz, GUN

• Approximate value: $4.14M to $4.2M

• Supply impact: 14.53% of circulating supply

Optimism, OP

• Approximate value: $3.97M

• Supply impact: around 1.50% of circulating supply

ZetaChain, ZETA

• Approximate value: $2.23M

• Supply impact: around 3.14% of circulating supply

HUMA and GUN carry the highest dilution risk this week given their large supply impact.

Market Outlook

Bitcoin

• Support zone: $76,000 to $76,100

• Immediate upside: $78,100 to $78,400

• Upside liquidity zone: $79,000 to $80,000

• Larger upside liquidity zone: $84,000

• Downside liquidity zone: $74,000

• Larger downside liquidity zone: $70,000

Bitcoin is sitting on the key $76K area after losing momentum from the prior $80K breakout attempt.

The trend model has flipped bearish, and $76,088 is now the major bull or bear level. If Bitcoin holds this area, a relief rally remains possible, especially on better U.S. and Iran headlines. A reclaim of $78.1K to $78.4K would open the path toward $79K to $80K, with $84K possible on a stronger squeeze.

If Bitcoin loses $76K cleanly, the downside path becomes much cleaner. The first target would be $74K, followed by $70K if ETF outflows continue.

Ethereum

• Support zone: $2,000 to $1,950

• Key short term level: $2,000

• Downside liquidity zone: $1,900 and $1,830

• Bullish reclaim level: $2,450

• Larger upside target: $2,550

Ethereum remains weaker than Bitcoin.

ETH dominance has fallen below 10%, ETF flows remain negative, and funding is still elevated while price trends lower.

The key short term level is $2,000. If ETH loses this area, the downside liquidity zones at $1,900 and $1,830 become the next levels to watch. On the upside, Ethereum needs to reclaim $2,450 to improve the setup and open a move toward $2,550.

The relative value view remains unchanged: favor Bitcoin over Ethereum.

Altcoins

Altcoin exposure should remain selective and limited.

Stablecoin liquidity is weak, ETF flows are negative, Ethereum is underperforming, and the market has not confirmed a broad risk on rotation.

That said, Hyperliquid remains a clear exception. HYPE rose 35.85% last week from $45.74 to a new all time high of $62.14, driven by the launch of the SpaceX pre IPO perpetual futures contract, SPCX, on May 18.

The contract was deployed through Hyperliquid’s HIP 3 framework and allows traders to speculate 24/7 on SpaceX’s market implied valuation. Demand was immediate, with the implied valuation moving from $1.78T to above $2.5T within hours of launch.

The activity reinforced HYPE’s tokenomics, with protocol activity and trading fees routed back into the ecosystem. Strong debut inflows into newly launched Spot HYPE ETFs from 21Shares and Bitwise added further support and helped trigger a short squeeze.

Hyperliquid continues to show that decentralized perpetual exchanges can expand beyond crypto only trading into pre IPO price discovery, RWAs, and synthetic markets. HYPE remains one of the strongest altcoins since the beginning of the year.

Outside of these idiosyncratic winners, broader altcoin exposure should remain cautious until stablecoin liquidity improves, Ethereum stabilizes, and ETF flows stop deteriorating.

Disclaimer: This content presents objective market data and does not constitute investment advice.