Weekly Crypto Outlook – August 11, 2025

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (August 4–10)

• Bitcoin – The bounce anticipated last week occurred, reaching the key level at $118.5K. 

• Ethereum Breakout – ETH finally broke above its 2024 high, reaching $4,300. Monthly active ETH addresses hit a record 8.8M, surpassing the May 2021 peak of 8.3M.

• U.S. 401(k) Crypto Access – On Thursday, August 7, President Trump signed an executive order allowing U.S. 401(k) retirement plans to invest in cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets. The order also instructs regulators to prevent banks from denying services to lawful crypto firms.

• Toncoin Treasury Launch – Toncoin became the latest asset with a dedicated treasury company, as Verb Technology raised $558M in a private placement to buy and stake Toncoin. The firm will rebrand as TON Strategy Co. and remain Nasdaq-listed.

• Pro-Crypto Fed Appointment – On Thursday, August 7, Trump nominated Stephen Miran, a Bitcoin supporter, to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed board until January 2026. Miran is known for supporting dollar devaluation and rate cuts.

2. Major Events & Economic Data This Week

• Tuesday, August 12 – U.S. CPI data – Consensus expects a 2.8% YoY print. A higher-than-expected reading could challenge expectations for a September rate cut and weigh on risk assets.

• Thursday, August 14 – U.S. PPI data – Watched as a leading inflation indicator; an upside surprise could reinforce a hawkish Fed tone.

• Friday, August 15 – U.S. Retail Sales – Consensus expects 0.5% MoM - Key gauge of consumer spending; strong results could delay rate cuts, while weakness may support easing.

• Friday, August 15 – Trump–Putin meeting – Markets will watch for developments on Ukraine, trade, and geopolitics that could influence risk sentiment.

3. Market Outlook – This Week and Near-Term Strategy

• Crypto markets have shaken off the summer lull, delivering one of the strongest weekly altcoin rallies in months — led by Ethereum’s breakout.

• Bitcoin – The market is expected to continue higher, with the next major liquidation cluster around $120K in sight. A key trigger level sits at $121.6K; consolidation between these two zones is likely. A breakout above $121.6K would put the large liquidation target at $129.2K into play.

• Ethereum – Momentum remains elevated after the breakout to $4,300. We expect continuation toward the $4,800 2021 peak, supported by strong Asia-led volume surges.

• Altcoins – Rotation into altcoins continues, with SOL and SUI expected to deliver strong performance in the near term, benefiting from Ethereum’s recent strength.

Strategy Note (TLDR) – We favor the upside, with Bitcoin eyeing $120K–$121.6K resistance levels. A breakout above $121.6K targets $129.2K, while downside appears limited to $107K–$110K support. Rotate into SOL and SUI for improved ROI. With major catalysts this week (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Trump–Putin meeting), traders should remain tactical, using tight stops, watching liquidation clusters for entry/exit cues, and monitoring funding rates — currently elevated at 12.08% for BTC and 17.4% for ETH — as they could signal overheating.