1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (Sep 22–28)
Durable goods surprise rekindles inflation debate
August durable goods orders rebounded sharply at +2.9% m/m (ex-transportation +0.4%), while core capital goods rose +0.6% m/m, signaling firmer business investment. Alongside stronger Q2 GDP revisions (3.8% annualized) and lower jobless claims (218k), the data tempered hopes for rapid easing and pushed the dollar to a three-week high.
Crypto deleveraging
Digital assets saw $235m in outflows, with ~$2B of leveraged futures positions unwound during the week. Altcoin open interest dominance peaked at 1.7 (vs. the 1.4 threshold that often precedes liquidations), which preceded a ~$1.8B forced liquidation wave.
ETF outflows deepen
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $900m of outflows last week, while Ethereum ETFs lost nearly $800m. Combined, BTC/ETH ETFs saw around $1.7B in net redemptions, underscoring investor caution and contributing to tightening crypto liquidity.
Stablecoin inflows continue nonetheless
Despite ETF weakness, stablecoin activity remains robust. Tether (USDT) market cap climbed to $174.1B (+1.6% w/w), with trading volumes up 8% versus average at $138.1B. Circle’s USDC slipped modestly, with market cap down to $73.7B (–0.4% w/w) and volumes at $17.3B (–2% vs. average). Overall, stablecoins added +$2.4B net supply last week, extending their role as a liquidity backstop.
Whale & sentiment dynamics
BTC dominance rose to 57.7% (+0.6%) while ETH slipped to 12.8% (–0.6%), underscoring a tactical preference for Bitcoin over alts. Sentiment sharply deteriorated: BTC Greed & Fear Index dropped to 5% (from 44%) and ETH to 10% (from 46%), both near contrarian reversal levels.
Other notable developments
Cloudflare enters stablecoins: Cloudflare (market cap >$76B) announced NET Dollar, a USD-backed stablecoin designed for AI-to-AI transactions. Together with Coinbase, it also launched the x402 Foundation for AI-driven payments.
Plasma chain launch: Backed by Tether, the new Plasma blockchain debuted with fee-free stablecoin payments and a native token (XPL, already >$2B market cap). The project also disclosed plans for a Visa-linked neobank, Plasma One.
Regulatory scrutiny of corporate crypto treasuries: The SEC and FINRA reportedly contacted companies flagged for unusual stock moves tied to crypto-treasury announcements. Authorities are reviewing potential leaks or insider trading, highlighting risks of poorly timed or publicity-driven treasury strategies.
2. Major Events & Economic Data This Week (Sep 29– Oct 5)
Oct 2 – US ADP Employment Report (Sep): Provides an early private-sector jobs signal ahead of Friday’s NFP release.
Oct 2 – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Key read on business activity, orders, and price pressures.
Oct 3 – US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): The most closely watched labor market indicator; outcome will shape expectations for policy and growth.
Oct 5 – OPEC Meeting: Oil production decisions will feed directly into inflation expectations and risk appetite.
3. Market Outlook – This Week and Near-Term Strategy
Liquidity conditions
Coinbase’s Global M2 Liquidity Index (BTC correlation ~0.9) currently points to favorable liquidity conditions for October, offering short-term support for risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC)
Despite widespread bearish calls for a move below $100k, price action followed the scenario we flagged last week: an early-week deviation under support, followed by a recovery that reached $114k on Monday. Sustained ETF outflows remain a concern, but with excess leverage cleared out, the large liquidity pool around $119.6k is still very much in play. Ethereum (ETH)
ETH mirrored BTC’s setup last week, with a deviation below support that saw prices test $3,815 on Sep 26. Traders sharply reduced exposure after the 10% drop: open interest fell 14.6% and volumes declined 22%, signaling some de-risking. With excess leverage cleared, a recovery toward $4,400 is now plausible. Altcoins (SOL, XRP)
Despite broad deleveraging, anticipation of potential US ETF approvals is sustaining interest in SOL and XRP. Persistent inflows into these names contrast with BTC/ETH ETF outflows, highlighting shifting investor focus. Near-term, SOL maintains a solid support base around $200, while XRP benefits from renewed speculative momentum.
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