Weekly Crypto Outlook – November 03, 2025

TL;DR

• The crypto market remains in a consolidation phase, with liquidity steady but subdued and risk appetite still fragile. ETF outflows and slower stablecoin growth point to a pause in new capital inflows, while derivatives positioning continues to unwind.

• Bitcoin is holding near $107K, having failed to break above $116.7K last week and now facing potential tests of support with a deviation below $106K. Ethereum mirrors this structure, stabilizing near $3,700 with downside risk toward $3,600–$3,500 before a durable recovery can take shape.

• Solana (SOL) remains the strongest altcoin candidate for near-term recovery, supported by institutional participation and ETF traction. Key support sits near $170, where tactical accumulation could be considered if broader sentiment stabilizes.

• Sentiment has turned defensive (BTC Fear & Greed Index at 22), yet leverage has eased, leaving the market better balanced for an eventual rebound once ETF inflows or macro conditions improve.

• Overall stance: neutral-to-cautiously constructive — patience remains warranted until confirmed signs of renewed inflows or a clear technical breakout emerge.

In this week’s note

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week

2. Key Macro Drivers – The Week Ahead

3. Market Outlook – Liquidity, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (Oct 27 – Nov 2)

Rates and the Macro Backdrop

Market tone remained cautious following the Fed’s 25 bps cut on October 29, as Chair Powell signaled that a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion.” The comment weighed on risk assets and briefly strengthened the dollar. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown continues with little progress, extending into its fourth week.

ETF and Stablecoin Flows

Crypto liquidity softened, with Bitcoin ETFs posting roughly $800 million in outflows over the past week — their weakest two-month reading — while Ethereum ETFs saw $227 million in outflows, extending a downtrend that began in September.

On the stablecoin side, Tether’s USDT supply rose just 0.22% to $183.4 billion, while Circle’s USDC supply declined 0.5% to $75.8 billion, marking a clear deceleration in system-wide liquidity expansion.

Overall, capital remains circulating within the crypto ecosystem rather than entering anew, contributing to thinner trading volumes and a lack of directional conviction.

Key Headlines

• Mastercard acquires fiat on-ramp ZeroHash: Mastercard is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire crypto infrastructure firm ZeroHash for between US$1.5 billion and US$2 billion, one of its largest bets yet on stablecoin and blockchain-based payment rails. The acquisition underscores Mastercard’s continued expansion into digital-asset infrastructure and institutional crypto services.

• Joe Lubin’s ConsenSys is going public: ConsenSys, the firm behind MetaMask, Linea, and Ether.fi, has selected JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to underwrite its upcoming IPO, expected to be one of the largest ever by a crypto-native company. The move signals growing investor and regulatory confidence in blockchain infrastructure firms entering public markets.

• Big moves for Securitize: Tokenization platform Securitize announced a partnership with BNY Mellon to launch a tokenized CLO fund, alongside plans to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Fitzgerald at a valuation exceeding US$1 billion — a milestone for real-world asset tokenization and institutional adoption.

2. Key Macro Drivers – The Week Ahead (Nov 3 – 7)

Calendar

• Nov 3: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

• Nov 5: ADP Payrolls / U.S. ISM Services PMI

• Nov 7: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls / U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

• Crypto: Monad Airdrop (Opens Nov 3)

View: November opens with a dense U.S. data calendar, though publication risks remain amid the ongoing government shutdown. The Fed’s 25 bps cut and confirmation that QT will end on Dec 1 mark an inflection toward easier liquidity, but Chair Powell’s guarded tone leaves markets cautious about the pace of future easing.

For digital assets, this backdrop should limit downside risk while keeping recovery momentum data-dependent. Persistent ETF outflows and slower stablecoin growth suggest traders will fade rallies until macro clarity improves, yet the combination of dovish policy, soft labor data, and year-end liquidity could reignite inflows into crypto once risk appetite broadens.

3. Market Outlook – Liquidity, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins

Liquidity and Positioning

Market conditions softened further this week as crypto liquidity remained steady but unenthusiastic. Total market capitalization slipped 3.4% to $3.7 trillion, while aggregate trading volumes held near $152 billion, indicating that the recent drawdown was driven more by positioning than by capital flight.

ETF and stablecoin data reinforce this narrative: Bitcoin ETFs saw ~$800M outflows, and Ethereum ETFs lost $227M, while USDT supply rose just 0.22% and USDC fell 0.5%.

Sentiment has turned sharply defensive, with the Bitcoin Greed & Fear Index dropping to 22 (from 47) and Ethereum’s to 27 (from 51).

In short, liquidity is stable but inert — leverage has unwound, inflows have paused, and risk appetite is subdued. The setup leaves the market finely balanced: thin liquidity amplifies downside risk but also primes conditions for a reflexive upside squeeze if ETF flows or macro sentiment turn positive into mid-November.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Key levels: Support $100K–$106K / Resistance $111.7K–$116.5K

Outlook: Bitcoin is currently trading around $107,000, just shy of last week’s upside targets near $116.7K, highlighting the market’s lack of momentum before retracing toward the lower end of the range. At this stage, it appears increasingly likely that the liquidation pool below $106K will be tested before a stronger base can form. The base case remains to wait for a confirmed rebound before re-entering, ideally supported by renewed ETF inflows and a pickup in open interest.

Ethereum (ETH)

Key levels: Support $3,500–$3,600 / Resistance $4,000–$4,250**

Outlook: Ethereum continues to mirror Bitcoin’s consolidation pattern, currently holding near $3,700 after failing to sustain a breakout toward the upper end of its range. Spot demand remains weak, suggesting short-term rallies may continue to fade. The liquidation zone around $3,600–$3,500 is likely to be tested before a durable recovery develops. The preferred approach is to wait for downside imbalances to clear and look for a rebound above $3,750 before re-engaging.

Altcoins (SOL)

The post-liquidation environment continues to weigh on smaller assets, but Solana (SOL) remains a relative outperformer. Institutional participation and ETF traction continue to support its medium-term outlook. While volatility remains elevated, tactical accumulation on weakness appears justified, as SOL is likely to recover in tandem with Bitcoin once market sentiment stabilizes. Key support sits near $170, and exposure should remain measured and opportunistic, focusing on short-duration trades and disciplined position sizing.