Weekly Crypto Outlook – August 18, 2025

1. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (August 11–18)

• Bitcoin – ATH – BTC surged above $124K, setting a new all-time high on ETF approval optimism, dovish Fed expectations, and institutional flows.

• Bullish IPO – The Thiel-backed exchange jumped as high as $90 before closing at $68 (+83% vs. issue price), valuing it near $9.9B. Proceeds are expected to rotate into stablecoins under GENIUS Act rules.

• Stripe & Circle – Stripe unveiled Tempo, an ETH-compatible L1 for payments, while Circle announced the Circle Payments Network and Arc, a USDC-native L1. Both highlight the battle to own stablecoin rails.

• Macro data – July CPI +0.2% MoM (core 3.1% YoY) confirmed disinflation, but PPI shocked (+0.9% MoM, fastest in two years), clouding Fed odds.

• Crypto flows – BTC inflows were muted ($289M), while ETH led with $2.3B weekly inflows and a $1.07B daily record.

• Structural milestone – On Saturday, Aug 9, the first blockchain-based U.S. repo trade was executed via Canton Network: tokenized Treasuries held at DTCC were pledged for USDC collateral, settling instantly on-chain. The deal marked the start of 24/7 integration of a $27T market with crypto rails.

2. Major Events & Economic Data This Week

• Tuesday, Aug 19 – Housing Data – Starts/permits test rate sensitivity.

• Wednesday, Aug 20 – FOMC Minutes – Market focus on September cut probabilities (~62 bp priced).

• Thursday, Aug 21 – Jobless Claims – Further labor weakness could sway Fed action.

• Friday, Aug 22 – Jackson Hole (Powell speech) – Pivotal for confirming or pushing back against dovish pricing.

3. Market Outlook – This Week and Near-Term Strategy

• Bitcoin – After briefly hitting a new ATH at $124K, momentum faded and the market is now consolidating around $115.5K. The move cleared a large liquidation cluster at $116.5K and helped reset funding rates to healthier levels. Further consolidation is likely, with the next target around $114.5K before a potential recovery. A sustained break back above $120K would serve as the key signal of renewed upside.

• Ethereum – Inflows remain strong and sentiment is positive, positioning ETH as one of the best opportunities this week while BTC consolidates and dominance declines. There are clear signs of capital rotation into ETH and other blue-chip altcoins, which could support further upside momentum.

• Solana (SOL) – Strength vs. breakdown signals and correlation with U.S. small caps keep SOL well-positioned in the alt rotation. A treasury-company angle could add narrative momentum.

• Macro & geopolitics – Liquidity tailwinds (buybacks, Treasury issuance, MMF rotation) stay intact. The Trump–Putin summit removed some immediate geopolitical risk, but Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is now the defining catalyst for market direction.

Strategy Note (TLDR) – Bias stays bullish. BTC consolidation should clear the $114.6K level before recovering; a break back above $120K is the key upside trigger. ETH stands out as the strongest opportunity this week, with capital rotating into ETH and blue-chip alts as BTC dominance falls. SOL remains well-positioned within this rotation. Maintain a tactical overweight in altcoins overall — the 50-day EMA remains the key line in the sand: above it, stay long; below, cut exposure. The defining catalyst for market direction is Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.