Weekly Crypto Outlook - July 13, 2026

TL;DR

Crypto markets held up well despite renewed geopolitical tensions and a still hawkish Federal Reserve.
The geopolitical backdrop has worsened again. The Iran ceasefire has effectively broken down after attacks on commercial tankers and renewed U.S. and Iranian strikes. Diplomatic channels remain open, but shipping risk through the Strait of Hormuz has increased and WTI has recovered to around $73.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first positive week after eight consecutive weeks of outflows, while stablecoin supply stopped contracting for the first time since May. Those are encouraging signs that selling pressure may be easing, although they are not yet sufficient to confirm a durable trend reversal.
Bitcoin remains above its 30-day moving average, but the latest bounce has failed to reclaim the 4-hour 50 EMA. Our preferred scenario remains an early liquidity sweep into $61.4K to $61.7K before a recovery toward $64.7K to $65.2K.
Tuesday's U.S. CPI release is the key event of the week and is likely to determine whether Bitcoin confirms a short-term bottom or revisits lower liquidity.

In This Week's Note

Macro View
Market Movers
Key Headlines
Key Macro Events
Token Unlocks
Market Outlook

Macro View

Three themes continue to drive crypto markets.

Federal Reserve

June FOMC minutes remained hawkish.
September rate hike has not been ruled out.
U.S. CPI is released Tuesday at 16:30 Dubai time.

Why it matters

Higher-for-longer rates remain the biggest macro headwind for Bitcoin.

Middle East

Fighting resumed after attacks on commercial shipping.
Diplomatic talks remain open.
WTI has recovered to around $73.

Why it matters

Higher oil prices increase inflation risk and reduce the probability of near-term Fed easing.

Regulation

CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate.
SEC is preparing its proposed “Regulation Crypto” framework.

Why it matters

Regulatory clarity continues to improve, although neither development is likely to become an immediate price catalyst.

Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Strategy's enterprise mNAV has fallen close to parity.
Treasury companies have started becoming net sellers rather than buyers.
Only a handful of treasury companies increased Bitcoin holdings over the past month.

Why it matters

Corporate treasury demand is becoming less supportive than earlier this year.

Market Movers

Market Performance

Total Market Cap
- Current: $2.25T
- Last Week: -0.5%
Bitcoin Dominance
- Current: 56.1%
- Last Week: +0.4%
Ethereum Dominance
- Current: 9.6%
- Last Week: +0.1%
Bitcoin
- Current: +2.2%
- Last Week: Above 30-day MA

Takeaway

Bitcoin continues to outperform despite a challenging macro backdrop.

ETF Flows

Bitcoin ETFs
- Weekly Flow: +$197M
Ethereum ETFs
- Weekly Flow: +$84M
First positive week after eight consecutive weeks of outflows.
BlackRock returned as the largest net buyer.

Takeaway

Institutional selling pressure may finally be easing.

Stablecoin Liquidity

Total Stablecoin Market Cap
- Current: $312.3B
USDT
- Current: Flat
USDC
- Current: Slight increase

Takeaway

Stablecoin supply has stabilised, but meaningful liquidity expansion has not yet begun.

Market Sentiment

BTC Fear & Greed
- Current: 28
- Last Week: 24
ETH Sentiment
- Current: 52
- Last Week: 57

Takeaway

Sentiment continues to recover gradually but remains cautious.

Key Headlines

SEC prepares first crypto-specific rule

The SEC is expected to publish its proposed “Regulation Crypto” framework later this month.

Takeaway

Could provide a clearer registration path for token issuers while Congress continues debating the CLARITY Act.

Kraken seeks a European banking licence

Kraken is pursuing a banking licence in Lithuania following its recent regulatory approvals in the U.S. and UAE.

Takeaway

Continues the trend toward full-service regulated crypto financial institutions.

BSTR restructures SPAC transaction

Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company has postponed its original merger with Cantor Equity Partners.

Takeaway

Highlights the increasingly difficult funding environment for Bitcoin treasury companies.

Key Macro Events

Tuesday
- Event: CPI & Core CPI
- Importance: ⭐⭐⭐
Tuesday–Wednesday
- Event: Fed Chair Warsh testimony
- Importance: ⭐⭐⭐
Wednesday
- Event: PPI
- Importance: ⭐⭐
Thursday
- Event: Retail Sales
- Importance: ⭐⭐

Notable Token Unlocks

SEI

Unlock Date: July 14
Value: Approximately $725K
Supply Impact: 0.21%

STRK

Unlock Date: July 15
Value: Approximately $1.07M
Supply Impact: 0.57%

ZK

Unlock Date: July 17
Value: Approximately $918K
Supply Impact: 1.37%

DBR

Unlock Date: July 18
Value: Approximately $1.37M
Supply Impact: 1.54%

Takeaway

No major token unlocks are expected this week. Supply events should have only a limited impact on the broader market.

Market Outlook

Bitcoin

Key Levels

4h 50 EMA
- Price: Approximately $62.9K
Expected liquidity sweep
- Price: $61.4K to $61.7K
Fast reclaim
- Price: $62.4K to $62.5K
First upside target
- Price: $64.7K to $65.2K
Bullish invalidation
- Price: 4h close above $63.5K
Bearish invalidation
- Price: 4h close below $61.2K
Larger downside liquidity
- Price: $57.3K to $57.6K

Outlook

Bitcoin continues to hold above its 30-day moving average despite renewed geopolitical tensions, a hawkish Fed, and weaker corporate treasury demand. That resilience remains constructive.
However, the latest bounce from $62.4K is being sold while open interest rebuilds, and price has so far failed to reclaim the 4-hour 50 EMA. This suggests the market has not yet completed its reset.
Our preferred scenario remains an early-week liquidity sweep into the $61.4K to $61.7K zone before a fast reclaim of $62.4K to $62.5K. If confirmed, this would likely trigger a move toward the $64.7K to $65.2K liquidity band.
That area should be viewed as the first profit-taking zone rather than the start of a breakout. It coincides with the daily 50 EMA, a large concentration of liquidation liquidity, and nearly six weeks of lower highs.
Failure to hold $61.2K on a 4-hour closing basis would invalidate the constructive scenario and shift focus toward $60.3K, the previous $58K lows and ultimately the untested $57.3K to $57.6K liquidity pool.
Tuesday's CPI release remains the event most likely to invalidate the technical setup in either direction.

Ethereum

Key Levels

Support
- Price: $1,700
Upside liquidity
- Price: $1,875
Major upside liquidity
- Price: $1,950
Downside liquidity
- Price: $1,550

Outlook

Ethereum continues to improve technically but still lacks clear leadership.
ETH ETF flows turned positive for the first time in two months, while Ethereum remains above its short-term moving averages. However, ETH continues to underperform Bitcoin on a relative basis and network activity remains subdued.
Holding above $1,700 would keep the recovery intact and leave the upside liquidity zones at $1,875 and $1,950 in focus.
Failure to hold support would expose the larger downside liquidity pocket near $1,550.
For now, Ethereum should be viewed as a recovering asset rather than a market leader.

Altcoin Watchlist

Several altcoins continue to show stronger relative momentum than Ethereum.

PYTH

Catalyst: Nasdaq data partnership
Weekly Change: +19.4%

ARB

Catalyst: Robinhood fee sharing
Weekly Change: +15.2%

AAVE

Catalyst: Stable Vaults and GHO expansion
Weekly Change: +11.2%

UNI

Catalyst: Fee and burn governance proposal
Weekly Change: +11.1%

ZEC

Catalyst: Ironwood security upgrade
Weekly Change: +8.2%

TRX

Catalyst: Compliance actions and treasury buying
Weekly Change: +2.2%

Takeaway

These tokens combine positive technical structure with identifiable fundamental catalysts, making them more attractive tactical opportunities than broad altcoin exposure.