Weekly Crypto Outlook – December 1, 2025

TL;DR

• Crypto markets experienced one of their lowest volume weeks since July, with total activity significantly below average, despite a 4% rise in market capitalization to USD 3.1 trillion. Early in the week, thin liquidity and weak participation continued to weigh on market structure. The situation worsened this morning when a sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields triggered a global risk-off move, causing Bitcoin to drop from USD 91,400 to USD 85,600. At the same time, new uncertainty surrounding stablecoin reserves resurfaced after S&P Global Ratings downgraded USDT, highlighting increased exposure to higher-risk assets and ongoing concerns about transparency.

• Macro remains the dominant influence. Futures markets continue to price an 80% to 85% probability of a December rate cut, and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest policy is still restrictive and may require easing. With limited official data available, upcoming releases for ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, and Core PCE inflation will play an important role in shaping expectations.

• Bitcoin continues to face selling from long-term holders and ETF redemptions. The key short-term levels to monitor are USD 90,000, USD 91,500, and USD 93,000. Reclaiming these levels would be an early sign of recovery. Ethereum remains dependent on Bitcoin's direction and continues to lag, with USD 3,000 as the main short-term pivot.

• Altcoins remain selective rather than broad, with only a few majors such as Solana and XRP showing relative strength. Stablecoin inflows are constructive, although sentiment is now influenced by the renewed discussion around USDT reserve quality.

• From a strategy perspective, the environment still favours caution. Trend-aware accumulation remains more effective than mechanical dip buying. The current 50-day EMA for Bitcoin is approximately USD 99,250. With the price below this level, the trend-aware DCA approach suggests patience until there is a clear reclaim supported by volume.

In this week’s note

1. Macro View

2. Market Movers & Events – Last Week

3. Key Macro Drivers – The Week Ahead

4. Market Outlook

1. Macro View

Macro is still in control

Crypto continues to behave like a high beta macro asset. The shutdown delayed key official data, forcing the Federal Reserve to rely on private surveys and high frequency indicators. Private inflation measures and producer price data point to contained pressures. Consumer confidence and retail sales weakened, indicating softer demand without showing a collapse.

This environment aligns with the K shaped economy narrative. Higher income groups continue to benefit from asset gains and AI driven productivity, while lower income segments face weaker income stability. This imbalance helps explain why crypto has lagged equities despite improving global liquidity.

Rate cut or pause

Futures now price an 80% to 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the December 9 to 10 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. John Williams and Christopher Waller signalled that policy remains restrictive and that a cut is appropriate if labour indicators continue to weaken. The Committee will be forced to make the decision with limited visibility due to missing inflation and employment data.

A confirmed cut combined with softer demand indicators would support renewed risk appetite. A more cautious stance would reinforce the current pattern of selective participation and thin liquidity.

2. Market Movers & Events – Last Week (Nov 24 – 30)

Price action

Crypto market capitalization rose 4% to USD 3.1 trillion. Weekly volumes fell to USD 127 billion, about 32% below average.

• Bitcoin volumes were USD 59.9 billion, down 31%

• Ethereum volumes were USD 21.1 billion, down 43%

• Ethereum fees dropped to 0.05 Gwei, indicating extremely low activity

Bitcoin rejected resistance near USD 92,000.

• RSI was 40%

• Stochastics was 38%

• Distance to trend reversal was 12.7%

• Short-term pivot is now USD 90,000

Ethereum remained in a downtrend.

• RSI was 41%

• Stochastics was 38%

• Distance to trend reversal was 17.6%

• Short-term pivot is now USD 3,000

Macro and central bank communication

• John Williams emphasised that policy remains restrictive

• Christopher Waller showed openness to easing

• Retail sales and consumer confidence softened

• Producer price inflation eased

Flows and positioning

• Bitcoin funding rate was 4.3%

• Bitcoin open interest was USD 29.7 billion, down USD 1.1 billion

• Ethereum funding rate was 20.4%

• Ethereum open interest was USD 16.2 billion, up USD 0.9 billion

Dominance metrics

• Bitcoin dominance was 58.6%

• Ethereum dominance was 11.8%

Exchange traded products

• Bitcoin ETFs saw USD 70 million of 7 day inflows, which still marked the second worst month for BTC ETF flows with USD 3.5 billion of net selling

• Ethereum ETFs saw USD 314 million of 7 day inflows, including 5 consecutive positive sessions

Stablecoins

• USDT market cap was USD 184.6 billion, up 0.11%

• USDC market cap was USD 76.6 billion, up 3.7%

• Weekly net stablecoin inflows totalled USD 2.9 billion

Key Headlines

Polymarket secures a regulated path back into the United States

Polymarket obtained approval through a partnership with a CFTC licensed venue, allowing it to operate compliant prediction markets in the United States. The relaunch will begin with a limited set of sports driven markets before expanding. It is one of the first examples of an on chain prediction market moving into a regulated framework.

Klarna integrates stablecoin settlement through Stripe

Klarna introduced stablecoin based merchant settlement using Stripe’s Bridge infrastructure. This allows merchants to benefit from faster and cheaper settlement without interacting directly with blockchain systems. The move signals that major consumer fintechs now see stablecoins as core payment rails rather than niche crypto tools.

Texas launches its first Bitcoin reserve allocation through a spot ETF

Texas executed a USD 5 million allocation into a spot Bitcoin ETF as part of its approved Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Although small in size, it is symbolically important. It represents one of the first cases of a public sector balance sheet in the United States adopting Bitcoin exposure through a regulated investment instrument.

3. Key Macro Drivers – The Week Ahead (Dec 1 – 7)

December 1: ISM Manufacturing Index

December 3: ISM Services Index

December 5: Core PCE inflation

This week: Federal Reserve communication ahead of the December 9 to 10 meeting

Token unlocks include: Eigen with USD 25 million, Sui with USD 83 million

View:

The market’s direction this week may be influenced by both macro data and the external shocks that drove this morning’s selloff. A sharp jump in Japanese government bond yields triggered a global risk-off move. The rise in yields raised concerns that the Bank of Japan may shift toward a more restrictive stance sooner than expected. Higher Japanese yields can force investors to unwind carry trades, tighten global liquidity, and reduce exposure to high beta assets. Crypto tends to react quickly to these liquidity shocks, and the sudden repricing contributed to the intraday drop across major tokens. At the same time, new fear, uncertainty, and doubt are emerging in stablecoin markets following the recent downgrade of USDT by S&P Global Ratings. The downgrade highlighted increased exposure of the reserves to higher risk and more volatile assets such as corporate bonds and digital assets, along with continued concerns about transparency. Because stablecoins remain the main source of liquidity and collateral for a large share of crypto trading, any uncertainty around the quality of reserves can create hesitation and slow the flow of capital into the market. These two developments, when combined, reinforce an already fragile liquidity environment. Even if expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut remain high, external shocks such as the jump in Japanese yields and renewed concerns around USDT reserves can limit the positive impact of macro friendly signals. The key macro releases for the week still matter. The ISM Manufacturing and Services reports will provide the first official read on economic conditions since the shutdown. The Core PCE inflation report remains the most important release, and a softer reading would support the case for a December cut. Throughout the week, Federal Reserve communication will take on added importance because policymakers continue to operate with limited visibility. Clear signals that an insurance cut is likely would help sentiment, while a cautious tone could prolong the current period of low participation and thin liquidity.

4. Market Outlook

Liquidity and Positioning

Liquidity remains weak with volumes significantly below average. Ethereum network activity is at multi month lows. Stablecoin inflows suggest improving underlying conditions.

Sentiment improved:

• Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index was 16%

• Ethereum Fear and Greed Index was 29%

These levels indicate stabilisation rather than confirmed trend reversal.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin continues to absorb selling from long-term holders and ETF redemptions. The market also experienced a sharp intraday drop this morning, with the price falling from USD 91,400 to USD 85,600 as liquidity thinned and broader risk sentiment weakened following the rise in Japanese government bond yields.

Key levels: Short-term levels to monitor are USD 90,000, USD 91,500, and USD 93,000.

A reclaim of USD 90,000 would be an early sign of recovery. Confirmation above USD 91,500 and USD 93,000 would strengthen the case for a more durable rebound, the large liquidation pool at USD 94500 being the ideal target. A sustained move above USD 98,000 to USD 100,000 is still required for a transition from repair to expansion. Failure to reclaim these levels increases downside risk toward the low USD 80,000 region.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum continues to lag, but speculative positioning is building.

Key level: Short-term pivot is USD 3,000

A move above USD 3,000 would signal the first improvement in momentum. Until then, Ethereum remains dependent on Bitcoin's direction and macro conditions.

Altcoins

Altcoins remain selective rather than broad. Solana and XRP continue to show relative strength.